How Can the Canucks Make the Playoffs Next Season?
This season hasn't gone too well for Vancouver. They're currently 35-36-7, already eliminated from contention and once again asking themselves the question: are we really a contending team? Today, we look at the Vancouver Canucks in the 2022-23 NHL season: why they didn't perform up to expectations, key performers, both good and bad, and what they can do next to make the playoffs for the first time since the COVID shortened 19-20 season.
Going into the 22-23 season, expectations were high for Vancouver. They missed out on the 21-22 playoffs but things were looking better, and the core was coming together. Thatcher Demko was expected to take a major step up, and the Canucks should have made the playoffs and perhaps done something in them. But that's not what happened. The 22-23 Canucks were riddled with issues, including an extremely public and emotional coach turnover, some hope for Connor Bedard, dashed by the Nucks decent play as of late. What went wrong? What took this team that only missed out on the playoffs by 5 points and turned them into a team no where near the playoffs and out of contention in March?
Slow Start and Underperformances
The Canucks started off the season 0-5-2, featuring some really rough losses. Thatcher Demko had a 4.06 GAA and an .872 during that span, while the team didn't control play much, with a 47.2 Corsi% during that span of games. Elias Pettersson had 7 goals during that span, but the Canucks as a whole were not playing very well. They really never got over this slow start as a team, as they went 18-25-3 before firing then HC Bruce Boudreau and replacing him with Rick Tocchet. It got leaked that they were doing this about a week before it happened, and a massive firestorm happened online and in games where Vancouver fans were chanting against the organization. Since they fired Boudreau, the team has played much better, being 17-11-4 during that span and actually looking like a solid team. During this time frame, the Canucks also traded captain Bo Horvat to the Islanders for Anthony Beauvillier, Aatu Raty and a pick that will be a 1st this season from the Isles if they make the playoffs or the pick stays out of the top 12, but if it does fall to top 12, it will be a 2024 Isles 1st. Now, that would have mattered, but they flipped that pick for Filip Hronek, who has been okay. Losing Bo Horvat hasn't really proven to be an issue, because Anthony Beauvillier has had an incredible stint with Vancouver while Bo hasn't played too particularly well with the Isles. However, as a whole, the Canucks have had mass underperformers.
When you're talking about Vancouver players underperforming, Vasily Podkolzin should jump out as the obvious name. While he hasn't played very much this season, at the start, he was expected to take a step forward and maybe become the top 6 winger people thought he could be. But, he only has 7 points in 39 NHL Games this season, and his advanced metrics aren't great. His Corsi% is 49 and his On-Ice Adjusted Expected Goals% is just 47%, meaning that whenever he's on the ice, the Canucks play worse. Dakota Joshua, Nils Aman, and Tyler Myers all each have horrible advanced metrics, and it paints a worse picture on their depth. Brock Boeser has decent metrics, 2nd in the Nucks with a 58 Corsi%, but he just hasn't produced. He was expected to take a step forward and rise to Elias Pettersson's level, but he's mostly stayed the same with 54 points in 70 games. OEL hasn't returned to the pre-trade form that they wanted him to hit either, with a 47 Corsi% and Relative Expected Goals% of -3.6, which means that the team scores 3.6% less goals when he's on the ice rather than when he's off. Alongside OEL is the horrid Vancouver defense. Every Vancouver defenseman not named Quinn Hughes has a Corsi% of 50 or below, and only Quinn Hughes and Filip Hronek have postive Relative Expected Goals%. Only Filip Hronek is the only defenseman on the team who allows less than 3 HD Scoring Chances per 60 minutes, while he and Quinn Hughes each are the only two who are above league average in On-Ice xGA p60%. All signs point to a below average defense and average offense, which is not what they were expected to have. And then, we look in goal...
Thatcher Demko was injured for a very large portion of this season, but even in the 30 games he has played, he has underperformed. With just an .898 SV% and a -10.8 GSAx, Demko has not retained the solid numbers he put up before this season. Him not playing well is a big reason why the Nucks were not great, and of course, his injury didn't help. As of late, he is going on a relatively nice hot streak, with a .913 SV% since he returned from his injury. The Canucks will likely trust him to start next season, so if he can bring back his old numbers, things will be fine in net for them.
Also in goal the Canucks of seen Collin Delia and Spencer Martin. Spencer Martin was atrocious, with a -23.5 GSAx, while Delia has been serviceable in his 18 games with a meh -4.6 GSAx. Arturs Silovs has also played 5 games with the Canucks as their netminder, with a serviceable -.8 GSAx and a .908. Don't expect Silovs to take over the world or anything, but he may get some more playing time next season, especially if Demko does not step back up.
Bright Spots
The Canucks have had some bright spots this season. The first one is Elias Pettersson. There were doubts from NHL fans going into the season about whether or not Elias Pettersson could actually perform to the superstar level people in Vancouver said he could, and he delivered. He currently has a career high 37 goals, 61 assists and 98 points, and should hit that 100 mark. He has been really solid even through some of Vancouver's worst stretches of hockey. With a 57 Corsi% and 12.2 Relative xG%, Pettersson has also commanded the ice really well and he's truly emerged as the face of this Canucks franchise.
Alongside Pettersson is the new sensation, Andrei Kuzmenko. Kuzmenko currently has the team leading 38 goals, and he leads the team with a 60 Corsi%! Kuzmenko has been the most influential Canuck while on the ice, and they inked him to a 2 year deal that will keep him in Vancouver until the end of the 24-25 season. This is at a solid 5.5 million cap hit, which is fantastic if he produces at this level for the next two seasons. Kuzmenko also sports a 27% S%, which is amazing. With the combination of him, Pettersson, and JT Miller, high profile scoring will not be an issue for the next few years. Speaking of, JT Miller has had a solid season, despite all the drama that there seems to always be with him. Unless the Canucks want to enter a full scale rebuild, I see no reason for him to go anywhere and he showed this year he can still perform. The final big piece on this team is of course, Quinn Hughes. Hughes was the team's best defenseman by a landslide, and he has emerged as a serious contender for the best offensive defenseman in the NHL. With his 70 points and 58 Corsi%, Hughes is dominant. Him being locked up until the 27-28 season is great for the Canucks future, and the core of Pettersson, Kuzmenko, Miller, and Hughes is great if Demko can perform in net.
New additon Anthony Beauvillier has been impressive and a great addition, with 19 points in his 29 games since being acquired in the Horvat trade. He has put up a 56.7 Corsi% since coming to Vancouver and he's also provided a good front on the two-way end, being a solid defensive presence as well. Beauvillier is under contract until the end of next season, and he could be a really solid 40-50 point, 55+ Corsi% presence on this offense if all goes well. Also of note is Conor Garland, who has put up less points this season than last season in the same amount of games, but he's shown flashes of greatness in some of Vancouver's best games, and at 27 and 2 more years left on his contract, he should be a solid second liner for this Canucks team that lacks good depth. Another player that could provide good depth is Nils Hoglander. He did not impress that much this season, his 3rd in the NHL at age 22, but if he reasonably progresses a little more, the Canucks will much appreciate him on the 3rd or 4th line. Another big young guy for the Canucks is Aatu Raty, another addition from the Horvat trade, who should be NHL-impact ready as early as next year, and I think he can impress and provide more young forward depth.
Another bright spot is new coach Rick Tocchet, who has turned this Canucks team around since the sacking of Bruce Boudreau. The Nucks, 17-11-4 since Tocchet's arrival, have came back together seeing great results. Everyone has played better since the coaching switch, and even Demko as of recently has been back up to form. Very clearly, something Tocchet is doing right now is right, and the players seem to enjoy his presence, so hopefully for the Canucks, he can hold this success into next season.
What's Next?
The Canucks still have a lot of work to do if they want to return to the playoffs next season. Notable players they will need to re-sign this offseason are Vitali Kravtsov (RFA), Nils Hoglander (RFA), Ethan Bear (RFA), and Kyle Burroughs (UFA). Collin Delia is also a UFA, and with his solid performance this year, I think they should bring him back to back up Demko.
The Canucks have solid young prospects in Nils Hoglander, Aatu Raty, Josh Bloom, Connor Lockhart, and Linus Karlsson in their forward system. They also have Chris Wolanin as their top blue line prospect, and he lit it up in AHL Abbortsford this season, so he could make a big impact on the Nucks horrific blue line.
For the Canucks, they have two options for where to go from here. They could build up their farm system more and more using this draft and potential trades of some big guys (Boeser, Miller, Demko, etc.) and enter a rebuild, or they try to retool the team on the fly this offseason. It's looking like the Canucks are going to try the latter, and I think it is the right call, as this Canucks fanbase would understandably be upset if the Canucks entered a rebuild now. To retool, I think the Canucks should try to trade in the draft. It's unlikely that the Canucks will look to move their own pick, but the Islanders pick, whether it is this year or next, should certainly be on the market.
The biggest issue with the Canucks this season was their defensive core, so trading for a defenseman makes a lot of sense. The problem, though is the Canucks lack of space. They're projected to already be over next year's 83.5 million cap, but this is something they can certainly work around. Now, the other issue is the relative lack of defenseman on the market. There's currently a rumor though that Travis Sanheim from the Flyers will be on the block during the draft, and he is someone the Canucks should absolutely jump on. Here is a mock trade I made. To make up for the Cap, I think the Canucks will give up a little more in exchange for the Flyers taking off some cap to ease the pain of it on the Canucks organization.
Travis Sanheim had a rough season this season with Philly this year, putting up just a 43 Corsi% and looking meh on both sides of his game. But, he's still young, has room to grow, and was playing on a Flyers team that basically had an entire season's worth of a rough patch. I believe that he is still extremely valuable for his great potential and could be a serious threat on the top 4 of the majority of teams on the NHL. He'll be able to play really well either with Quinn Hughes or on his own pair with OEL or someone else. Now, let's take a look at the trade I have made that will send Sanheim to Vancouver.
Flyers-Canucks Travis Sanheim trade:
In:
Travis Sanheim (6.25 mil cap hit, 20% retained by Philly, so 1.25 mil retained)
2023 Flyers Fourth
2024 Flyers Fifth
Out:
2024 Canucks First Round Pick
Tyler Myers (6 mil cap hit)
Linus Karlsson
2025 Vancouver Second Round Pick
Tanner Pearson (2.75 mil cap hit)
In total, the value of getting Sanheim is going to take a lot, especially when trying to convince the Flyers to take back 4 million in cap to make this work for the Canucks. Obviously, the Islanders first is gone already so they can't trade that, so they trade next year's first, and Tyler Myers and his large cap hit will also be gone. Linus Karlsson is a tough loss, but it's necessary if the Nucks want Travis Sanheim. I think they'd be higher on Karlsson than someone like Hoglander because of his younger age and definitely higher upside. Still, with just that, the Nucks would still need to free 2.5 million in cap space, so trading Tanner Pearson makes sense. The Canucks already have some solid forward depth, especially with Ilya Mikheyev's return next season. To make up for all of this value, the Canucks can sweeten the touch a bit by adding a second down the line, while the Flyers give up a fourth and a fifth to even the values. All in all, if the Flyers are trading Travis Sanheim, this makes sense for both sides, and the Canucks would get out of it with a new top 4 defenseman. Sanheim could really help shore up that blue line, and with Hughes Hronek Sanheim and OEL, they'll have a solid top 4 while Dermott and Bear should return. Chris Wolanin could also sneak into the top 6 and make this defense look very solid when compared to this season.
Draft
In the draft, the Canucks will have an opportunity to add on to their prospect core in a really solid draft. They're going to have a pick in the 9-12 range, unless they move up in the lottery. I don't anticipate that
much, and with their pick, I think they should take Brayden Yager.
With their other remaining picks, I could see the Canucks grabbing a defenseman in the third round, like Maxim Strbak out of the USHL, who has some solid upside. From there, the scouts certainly have their hidden gems, and no one else really strikes out to me as an obvious take. The Canucks though have a chance to have a very successful draft and move on as a winner of draft day, especially with the Sanheim trade I mocked.
Final Thoughts
With these moves, the Canucks could really make a leap in this Pacific Division, and potentially find themselves in the playoffs next season. They'll still often find themselves relying on their top 6 to lead this team, but there's not much else the Canucks can do with the very big OEL contract on the books. Maybe OEL can help them out on defense, which would be much improved with the addition of Travis Sanheim. In goal, Demko will be looking to have a rebound year. There's also the young players in Hoglander and Wolanin who should make a solid NHL impact next season. All of this should find the Canucks in prime position to take a playoff spot next year in the West, and knowing Demko's history, they could go far once they're there. All in all, not all is bleak in Vancouver, though this season can only be written as a failure.
With all that said, would this team that I have build make the playoffs next season? I think they can. The additions of the young guys as well as Travis Sanheim can bolster this Canucks team to the next level, and let's not forget the positive impact Rick Tocchet has had on this team so far. Even if the advanced metrics don't look promising, I believe he can get the most from these guys, and that mixed with an improvement of all facets of their game will send them back to the playoffs for the first time since the COVID pause year.
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