Playoff Preview: Dallas Stars vs Minnesota Wild

 This is it. Our final First Round Playoff Preview. And this is my 2nd rated series to watch, as this one will be great. It's the Dallas Stars (2 seed central) vs Minnesota Wild (3 seed central). 

The Stars narrowly missed out on the Central Division title after having it for most of the season. The Wild were doing great too, but trailed off of a bit once they clinched the playoffs, seemingly not taking games as seriously. This series though, will have a little bit of everything. Explosive offense, lockdown defense, stellar goaltending, physicality, everything. It's a matchup between rivals, and it's going to be an exciting one. And, for this final preview, I am going to format things a bit differently. Instead of talking individually about each team, how they got here, and top performers, I feel it more fitting in this serious to compare and contrast the teams as I go through the team play, forward core, defensive core, and goaltending. It will show you just how evenly matched these two teams are, and thus, how fun this series is going to be. 

Firstly, let's talk about the overall team stats. The Stars ended of course with more points, so they get home ice. Starting with Special Teams, we see the Stars PK at 3rd in the NHL (83.5%) while the Wild are slightly behind at 82.0%. The Stars also have the edge at PP as theirs is 25% while the Wild have a 21.4%. So, the special teams edges slightly to Dallas. Dallas snuck into 2nd in the NHL with a 56.5% G%, while the Wild finished up at 52.18%. Dallas is also top 5 in xG while the Wild fall down a bit. Early on it looks as if the Stars have the major advantage. This stays again as Dallas is 8th in Corsi while Minny is just 17th. But, the Wild shore it up when it comes to other stats. Minnesota has suffered from a problem many teams have faced, which is that they just simply have been unable to get productive scoring from a lot of their top guys. Minnesota just simply doesn't give up the puck as much as Dallas does, which is a point for Minny in this matchup. Not giving away the puck is a shore way to stop bad goals from going in and will certainly help you win games. All in all, from the team numbers, it paints the picture that Dallas has the edge offensively while Minny has the edge defensively.

And that assumption is matched well by individual stats. On Dallas' side, they have a ton of forward depth alongside their stars, while the Wild depth is just a little bit off. In terms of stars, Robertson is the best player on both teams, with over 100 points and being a dominating feature in every game. Guys like Roope Hintz though will be difference makers as well. For Minnesota, they need Kirill Kaprisov, Mats Zuccarello, and Matt Boldy to take a step up in the playoffs to match the explosiveness of the Stars. Still though, the Stars forward core edges out Minnesota just a little bit. Defensively, the Wild are enjoying an extremely great season from Calen Addison, who has actually been a top 5 defender in the NHL while he has played. Their entire defense other than him is solid/average, but with him, they get solid edges over the Stars, whose best defneder is Colin Miller, while Heiskenan does provide an offensive spark. All in all, once more, the Forwards are going advantage Dallas while the defense is certainly advantage Minny. 

In net, this is where things get close. The Stars' Jake Oettinger had 11.8 GSAx, with a .919, which is far worse than the 24.2 GSAx and .931 Filip Gustavsson put up with the Wild. If the Wild start Fleury though, the edge is clearly with Otter as Fleury hasn't been the same goalie he once was. The reason why though I think between the pipes is a tie is because Jake Oettinger has proven that he steps up when it matters. He put up the best single series against the Calgary Flames last season, and he looks poised to do it again against Minny. And, Minny's offense is weak enough that Otter can just shut them down completely on a good night. But, Filip Gustavsson on the other hand has had an incredible season, so this could be a series with great goalies galore. 

Prediction

My prediction: Stars in 7

Season Series: 2-0-2 Dallas

While this series is going to be extremely close, and could go either way, I give the slight edge to Dallas. They have a massive edge on the forward core that I think could just simply be too much to handle for Minnesota. But, the Wild also are up to the challenge. These games will be medium scoring and close. Both defenses are able to stop the opposing offense with the help of the stellar goalie each team has. If this series doesn't go to 7, I will be disappointed. And, in game 7, I just cannot rule against Jake Oettinger. He is slowly becoming the next Ben Bishop. Still, this series is going to be absolutely incredible, and I'm excited to watch it. 

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