Playoff Preview: New Jersey Devils vs New York Rangers
The Devils and the Rangers are understandably one of the most highly touted playoff matchups of this first round. They're located just 30 miles apart and are huge rivals, so this series will be a blast. The Devils landed home-ice advantage and just barely missed out on the top spot in the Metro, while the Rangers have been locked in 3rd for a while now. The Devils are currently the slim favorites, but let's take a look at both teams and then make our decision on who will move on to Round 2 between this fierce matchup.
The Devils have been one of the best teams in hockey as of late. They finished 3rd in the NHL with a 56.56 Goals%, and 2nd to the Canes with a 56.5 xG%. They've played right up to what they're supposed to. Their Corsi% is similarly top 5 in the NHL and they look electric every single time they play. There's nothing you can adjust these stats for that say that the Devils are anything but a top 5 NHL team. If they were in the west, they would've easily taken home the best record, but instead they have to settle for 2nd in the Metro. They look solid in all defensive metrics as well. Individually, the Devils look great too. They have 7 players over 20 xG, and 6 of those actually did hit 20 goals. Their top guys are all near 60 Corsi% and they have a whopping 11 players with 50+ Corsi, which is the best depth we have seen from a forward core so far. Timo Meier seemingly has finally found his spot in NJ after a slow start since the trade. This forward core is extremely scary with the addition of him, and they have been able to roll 2 or 3 absolutely elite lines, which is huge in the playoffs when teams' defenses will be stretched more and more. Here's a nice graph of Devils players in terms of xGoals on and off ice:
On Defense, the Devils have a pretty solid one. Dougie Hamilton and Damon Severson lead the way, with Hamilton oftentimes setting up goals while they both are still studs defensively. The Devils have 7 defenders qualified in terms of Ice Time, and all 7 of them have below a 3.1 on-ice xG p60, with John Marino being the closest at 3.08. All 7 of them are all also very good at protecting Vanecek in goal, not allowing high danger shots and having respectable blocked shot numbers. This team is also pretty good at getting active on forechecking with their defense, as they all still have respectable offensive metrics and Corsi%. All in all, a pretty solid defense that can do good things in these playoffs.
In net, Vitek Vanecek leads the way. Playing 52 games, putting up a respectable .911 SV% and 5.1 GSAx, Vanecek is the obvious starter. I personally would have liked to see Akira Schmid get more games as he looked really promising in the games he played, but that's not how it went. Vanecek is their starter, he's put up some solid numbers, and they'll need him to play like that again in these playoffs. Goaltending is easily the weakest link of this very strong team, and that's impressive considering Vanecek has been pretty good. All in all, this team is an absolute powerhouse.
The New York Rangers are back in the playoffs after their ECF appearance last season, where they lost to Tampa Bay. This season, they're top 5 in G% again with a 55.8, while their xG% is far lower and puts them down to bottom 14 in the NHL. Their Corsi% also tells the same story as they're middle of the pack there. An interesting stat is that the Rangers ranked 3rd in the NHL in not taking a lot of penalties. Only 47% of Penalties that happen in Rangers games go against the Rangers, which again, is really good. In comparison, the Devils are at 49.9%, which is a whopping 2% more than the Rangers! The Rangers have one of the best shares of takeaways in the NHL, and while they give away the puck a lot, rarely is it in the defensive zone. All in all, their team stats look pretty solid.
Individually, the Rangers forward core look solid. 6 Ranger forwards have 20 or more goals, and they have an incredible 11 forwards with over 15 xG. 9 of them have a Corsi% of 50+, which is good depth to have, really only matched by the Devils and Bruins in the east. Now, let's get into the really good stuff. If you thought that Devils graph was impressive, look at the same graph but for the Rangers:
Moving on to Defense, the Rangers have a meh-below average one. Adam Fox is the only Ranger defenseman above a 50 Corsi%, which is tough, while guys like Niko Mikkola have just had some rough seasons. Adam Fox and Braden Schneider are the only two Ranger defensemen below a 3 on-ice xGA p60, which is concerning going into a matchup vs this Devils team. But, the edge this Rangers team has massively over the Devils is of course: the goaltending.
Igor's season this season was not nearly as impressive as last season, but he still had an incredible year. He finished top 5 in the NHL with 28.5 GSAx and a SV% of .916. He was extremely good and again carried this Rangers team through its tough times, and without him, they wouldn't be a playoff team. They need him to shut down the Devils offense in this series if they want to win. Not much else to say about Igor, you all know he's top 5 in the NHL, I don't need to rub it in more.
My Prediction: Devils in 7
This series is truly a coinflip. I expect every single game to be really close and fun to watch. This is the series I am most looking forward to and the one I don't expect to disappoint whatsoever. For the Rangers to win, they just need a little bit of good play from Igor and the forwards to take advantage of Vitek Vanecek being a weaker goaltender. For the Devils, they need to keep their hot streak going, not falter if Igor steals a game, and they should find themselves in good positions.
This series should go to 6 or 7 easily, but depth will also be a key. The Devils do have the edge in depth narrowly, which is part of the edge I give to them. Guys like Miles Wood are going to be key in stopping a Rangers onslaught. This series will be physical, medium-scoring hockey that everyone loves to see. The only thing going against this series is that it has to happen in round one.
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