Playoff Preview: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning
THE PLAYOFFS ARE HEREEEEEEEE! Here at Beyond Center Ice, we will be looking at every single playoff series to preview it, and review it when each series is done. Our first series will be one that has been decided for a while: the Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning.
Last season, we got this matchup too. The Tampa Bay Lightning came back down 3-2 in the series and won in 7 in their eventual run to a Stanley Cup Finals appearance for their 3rd straight season. As for their Leafs, as you likely know, they have lost in the first round for 7 straight seasons and haven't made it to Round 2 or farther since 2004. For the Leafs, this is do or die. Let's take a look at some key stats/players from each team and then reach a verdict on who will be the winner and in how many games it will take.
The Maple Leafs finished the season 50-21-11, tallying 111 points and finishing 4th in the entire NHL. They were expected to be in the playoffs from the start, and they delivered with another great season. Now all the pressure rides on this playoff series. Some key performers from the regular season includes Auston Matthews' 85 points, 40 of which being goals and 38.5 xG. Mitch Marner missed out on 100 points by just a point, and he's collected 69 apples this season. Tavares and Nylander have each also done what they've been expected to do, while players like Michael Bunting also do their job really well. Ryan O'Reilly, a key deadline acquisition, is expected to return in time for game 1, which will be huge for their offense and it'll create yet another splurge of depth from this Maple Leafs team. They strive on depth. Their top 8 skaters in Corsi% though all also tally a 55+, which can be very telling for a playoff series. Getting those 8 to step up while having the depth is how you win games.
The Leafs have a clean top 6 of defenseman who do not allow a lot of high danger shots, or goals, as their best 6 defensemen all have an On-Ice xGoals p60 of below 3.0. Jake McCabe and Justin Holl fall out of that category but are still solid defenders that will play these playoffs. All in all, their skater group is excellent. Between the pipes, the Leafs have a really solid tandem of Murray and Samsonov. They've both been solid and have very interesting home-away splits that could lead to a potential rotation situation once they're both completely healthy. Samsonov will likely get the first starts though, as he has been a top 10 goalie this season, and if there is a goalie that can lead this Leafs team past round one, it is certainly Samsonov. Murray brings the factor though that he has done this before, and thus, might get some time as soon as Samsonov looks off.
The Maple Leafs finished the season 50-21-11, tallying 111 points and finishing 4th in the entire NHL. They were expected to be in the playoffs from the start, and they delivered with another great season. Now all the pressure rides on this playoff series. Some key performers from the regular season includes Auston Matthews' 85 points, 40 of which being goals and 38.5 xG. Mitch Marner missed out on 100 points by just a point, and he's collected 69 apples this season. Tavares and Nylander have each also done what they've been expected to do, while players like Michael Bunting also do their job really well. Ryan O'Reilly, a key deadline acquisition, is expected to return in time for game 1, which will be huge for their offense and it'll create yet another splurge of depth from this Maple Leafs team. They strive on depth. Their top 8 skaters in Corsi% though all also tally a 55+, which can be very telling for a playoff series. Getting those 8 to step up while having the depth is how you win games.
The Leafs have a clean top 6 of defenseman who do not allow a lot of high danger shots, or goals, as their best 6 defensemen all have an On-Ice xGoals p60 of below 3.0. Jake McCabe and Justin Holl fall out of that category but are still solid defenders that will play these playoffs. All in all, their skater group is excellent. Between the pipes, the Leafs have a really solid tandem of Murray and Samsonov. They've both been solid and have very interesting home-away splits that could lead to a potential rotation situation once they're both completely healthy. Samsonov will likely get the first starts though, as he has been a top 10 goalie this season, and if there is a goalie that can lead this Leafs team past round one, it is certainly Samsonov. Murray brings the factor though that he has done this before, and thus, might get some time as soon as Samsonov looks off.
The Leafs have had injury issues as of late. O'Reilly, Samsonov, Murray, Gustafsson, Giordano, and Tavares are all listed as day-to-day, but there is seemingly no concern that these players will not be available by game one. And they need them. For the Leafs, they need all the help they can get to beat their adversaries...
The Tampa Bay Lightning have made the Stanley Cup Finals 3 seasons in a row, proving that they are truly one of the best teams in recent memory. This season, however, has been a relatively down year for the Bolts, but the pressure is still on to try to make another run with their core. Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov have absolutely been terrific this season, with Kuch putting up 113 points while Point collected 51 goals. Stamkos, Killorn, and Hagel have each put up 60+ point seasons and looked solid. Their forward core ranks really well in terms of Shooting Ability above Average, with Kucherov leading the way. As for Corsi%, the Lightning have 12 Skaters at 50+, with Kuch and Point each above 60. All in all, the Bolts still have largely kept this core in tact from their back-to-back cups, and they are still threatening.
The Tampa Bay Lightning have made the Stanley Cup Finals 3 seasons in a row, proving that they are truly one of the best teams in recent memory. This season, however, has been a relatively down year for the Bolts, but the pressure is still on to try to make another run with their core. Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov have absolutely been terrific this season, with Kuch putting up 113 points while Point collected 51 goals. Stamkos, Killorn, and Hagel have each put up 60+ point seasons and looked solid. Their forward core ranks really well in terms of Shooting Ability above Average, with Kucherov leading the way. As for Corsi%, the Lightning have 12 Skaters at 50+, with Kuch and Point each above 60. All in all, the Bolts still have largely kept this core in tact from their back-to-back cups, and they are still threatening.
As for the D, cracks have started to show. No Lightning defenseman has been overly impressive in terms of defensive metrics, and on the contrary, they've been relatively underwhelming. This all culiminates to the team as a whole just being below average in the NHL in their defensive metrics. Results still do happen, but there is a lot to be concerned about going into this series though, especially at the Blue Line.
The way the Bolts take this series though is without a doubt lying in the hands of Andrei Vasilevskiy. Vasy has carried this team time and time again, leading them to two cups with his performances. Many still tout him as the best goalie in the NHL, and not without good reason. With 25.3 GSAx, Vasy ranks 6th in the NHL and keep in mind that this is a group of goalies that have put up otherworldly numbers. He still has it clearly, and the Bolts need to harness that potential and harvest it into a round one victory.
There is only one major injury for the Bolts, Tanner Jeannot. Jeannot is expected to miss some time, including game one of Round One, due to injury. Jeannot though has put up less than stellar numbers, and while he is still a good depth piece, he's pretty replaceable on that Bolts team.
Predictions
My prediction: Leafs in 7
Season Series: Leafs won 2-0-1
When you're comparing these two teams, you can see that the Leafs are simply better in every sense of the word. They have a 54 xG%, while the Bolts are only at 52. However, the Leafs Corsi% is actually below the Lightning's. This series is going to come down to goaltending and depth, though. You know both sides have what it takes up front, so it's about the depth. And I simply like the Leafs depth more. Obviously Vasy is the goalie everyone would rather have in these playoffs, but he cannot steal the series if the Lightning are so masterfully outplayed. I think Vasy will take this series that should be 5 games into 7, and make it extremely close, but I do think the Leafs will edge it out.
This would be incredible for Toronto, of course, and being the heavy favorite right now, the Leafs come in with all the pressure. This series preview is probably going to be the shortest of them all because there's really not as much to say. You know this Leafs team, they've been like this for a while. You know this Lightning team, they've been like this for a while. These two teams now get to fight in a 7 game series. Who will win? Time will tell. This series though, will be very exciting, and I think we should at least get 6 hard fought games. Expect some overtimes as well. I'm excited for this one.
The way the Bolts take this series though is without a doubt lying in the hands of Andrei Vasilevskiy. Vasy has carried this team time and time again, leading them to two cups with his performances. Many still tout him as the best goalie in the NHL, and not without good reason. With 25.3 GSAx, Vasy ranks 6th in the NHL and keep in mind that this is a group of goalies that have put up otherworldly numbers. He still has it clearly, and the Bolts need to harness that potential and harvest it into a round one victory.
There is only one major injury for the Bolts, Tanner Jeannot. Jeannot is expected to miss some time, including game one of Round One, due to injury. Jeannot though has put up less than stellar numbers, and while he is still a good depth piece, he's pretty replaceable on that Bolts team.
Predictions
My prediction: Leafs in 7
Season Series: Leafs won 2-0-1
When you're comparing these two teams, you can see that the Leafs are simply better in every sense of the word. They have a 54 xG%, while the Bolts are only at 52. However, the Leafs Corsi% is actually below the Lightning's. This series is going to come down to goaltending and depth, though. You know both sides have what it takes up front, so it's about the depth. And I simply like the Leafs depth more. Obviously Vasy is the goalie everyone would rather have in these playoffs, but he cannot steal the series if the Lightning are so masterfully outplayed. I think Vasy will take this series that should be 5 games into 7, and make it extremely close, but I do think the Leafs will edge it out.
This would be incredible for Toronto, of course, and being the heavy favorite right now, the Leafs come in with all the pressure. This series preview is probably going to be the shortest of them all because there's really not as much to say. You know this Leafs team, they've been like this for a while. You know this Lightning team, they've been like this for a while. These two teams now get to fight in a 7 game series. Who will win? Time will tell. This series though, will be very exciting, and I think we should at least get 6 hard fought games. Expect some overtimes as well. I'm excited for this one.
More Playoff Previews are to come alongside this one! Expect all 4 Eastern Conference Matchups today (Saturday), while all Four Western Matchups Tomorrow (Sunday)!
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