Does New Jersey Have What it Takes to Compete for the Cup?
The Devils are tearing up the very tough Eastern Conference right now. That is a fact. They're 47-20-8, clinched for the playoffs, and are seriously threatening the Hurricanes for that #1 in the division spot. In their last 10 games, they're only 4-4-2 though. If the Devils really want to challenge for the Stanley Cup that many think they can, it'll be a tough road. They'll certainly have to deal with one of or both of the Hurricanes and Rangers, and even if they make it through those two, they would have to deal with one of the juggernauts in the Atlantic Division. Let's take a deeper look into the numbers and decipher if this Devils team is a contender or a pretender.
Surface Level
When you're looking at the surface level stats, everything is looking great in NJ. Their goal differential (52) is 2nd in the east, only outmatched by that of the Bruins (118). Jack Hughes has 40 goals and is going to finish the season close to 100 points, while Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, and Dawson Mercer each have over 20 goals, with Hischier near a PPG as well. The main concern of course right now is with Timo Meier. For a player of high caliber playing on a line of its caliber, only a .5 PPG pace is concerning for sure. For the Devils to make a longer run, he will certainly need to step back up to the level he showed to the world when he was playing in teal.
Dougie Hamilton has been fantastic on both sides of the ice. On the topic of defense, the Devils have one of the better defensive cores in the East. Alongside Hamilton is Jonas Siegenthaler, who has been elite defensively this season. The rest of their defensive has above average stats as well. Moving on to between the pipes, which is probably where the Devils have their biggest weakness. Their obvious starter is Vitek Vanecek, who has a solid .910 SV% in his 48 games. MacKenzie Blackwood has been below average, while Akira Schmid has been elite in his admittedly small sample size. He has a .918 in 17 games, impressive for a 22 year old goaltender who is just getting used to the system. Still though, Vanecek is their obvious starter.
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Dougie Hamilton has been fantastic on both sides of the ice. On the topic of defense, the Devils have one of the better defensive cores in the East. Alongside Hamilton is Jonas Siegenthaler, who has been elite defensively this season. The rest of their defensive has above average stats as well. Moving on to between the pipes, which is probably where the Devils have their biggest weakness. Their obvious starter is Vitek Vanecek, who has a solid .910 SV% in his 48 games. MacKenzie Blackwood has been below average, while Akira Schmid has been elite in his admittedly small sample size. He has a .918 in 17 games, impressive for a 22 year old goaltender who is just getting used to the system. Still though, Vanecek is their obvious starter.
Under the Hood
When you go deeper into NHL stats, it's important to take what you see with a grain of salt. While these stats are a good indication of how a team is doing, it's not always 100% accurate. The Devils are currently sitting at a 56% xGF%, which is a stat that estimates what the percentage of goals scored should be for a team. Essentially, the Devils should be scoring 56% of the goals being scored. This is really good. For comparison, the Bruins are only sitting at 54% xGF%. The Rangers are fluttering near 51-52%, so the signs are pointing up all Devils!
The Devils are also proving to be an unlucky team this year, scoring so far 15 goals below what they are expected to. Once again, comparing them to the juggernaut of the East, the Bruins, shows that it pays to be lucky, as the Bruins are sitting at 15 goals above expected. If the Devils can stop their unlucky streak of scoring, they are certain to be a scoring juggernaut come playoff time.
However, not is all sunshine and rainbows in Jersey. To be a contender in the playoffs, unless you're the 2022 Colorado Avalanche, you need your goalie to be elite. For the Devils, Vitek Vanecek is simply not on a good enough level to be considered elite. Vitek Vanecek has only saved 3.8 goals above expected, a harsh stat considering what the Devils would be up against. Linus Ullmark has a GSAx of 41.2, while likely opponents Igor Shesterkin and Ilya Sorokin have GSAx's of 20.2 and 37.1 respectively. This is certainly problematic for later runs, because as the Devils get farther, they will have to face better goaltending. And then there is that one exception. The Carolina Hurricanes have a similar issue that their division rivals have. Their goalies are not elite. With Kotchetkov, who has been their best goalie this season, down in the minors, Freddie Andersen is going to start for the Canes if the Devils and Canes meet in Round 2. It would be an even-favorable matchup on that front for the Devils, so if they can get past the insanity that the New York teams bring, they might have an easier goaltending matchup in round 2.
For forwards and defensemen under the hood, the Devils pull out looking pretty good, if not a bit unlucky. Erik Haula is expected to have 10 more goals than he has, while Jesper Bratt 8 less. Their giveaway-takeway ratios look pretty solid, and the team as a whole looks fit. Once again, going into the playoffs there will be a question mark next to the performance of Timo Meier and Vitek Vanecek, and the Devils fate certainly rests in the hands of how much they can step up.
The Devils are also proving to be an unlucky team this year, scoring so far 15 goals below what they are expected to. Once again, comparing them to the juggernaut of the East, the Bruins, shows that it pays to be lucky, as the Bruins are sitting at 15 goals above expected. If the Devils can stop their unlucky streak of scoring, they are certain to be a scoring juggernaut come playoff time.
However, not is all sunshine and rainbows in Jersey. To be a contender in the playoffs, unless you're the 2022 Colorado Avalanche, you need your goalie to be elite. For the Devils, Vitek Vanecek is simply not on a good enough level to be considered elite. Vitek Vanecek has only saved 3.8 goals above expected, a harsh stat considering what the Devils would be up against. Linus Ullmark has a GSAx of 41.2, while likely opponents Igor Shesterkin and Ilya Sorokin have GSAx's of 20.2 and 37.1 respectively. This is certainly problematic for later runs, because as the Devils get farther, they will have to face better goaltending. And then there is that one exception. The Carolina Hurricanes have a similar issue that their division rivals have. Their goalies are not elite. With Kotchetkov, who has been their best goalie this season, down in the minors, Freddie Andersen is going to start for the Canes if the Devils and Canes meet in Round 2. It would be an even-favorable matchup on that front for the Devils, so if they can get past the insanity that the New York teams bring, they might have an easier goaltending matchup in round 2.
For forwards and defensemen under the hood, the Devils pull out looking pretty good, if not a bit unlucky. Erik Haula is expected to have 10 more goals than he has, while Jesper Bratt 8 less. Their giveaway-takeway ratios look pretty solid, and the team as a whole looks fit. Once again, going into the playoffs there will be a question mark next to the performance of Timo Meier and Vitek Vanecek, and the Devils fate certainly rests in the hands of how much they can step up.
Matchups
A major part of the playoffs will be who the Devils will actually play. As it stands right now, the Metro Standings are set up so that the Devils will play the Rangers, while the division leading Hurricanes will play the WC1 Islanders. The Isles have WC1 currently held pretty tightly, so I consider them a real potential opponent.
Rangers
Rangers
The Devils and Rangers, being just a small border away from each other, are naturally big rivals. Their season series this season is done, with the Devils coming out on top with a 3-1-0 record. One of those games went to overtime, and the Devils outshot the Rangers 141-120, outscoring them 14-11. Usually though, in the playoffs, these regular season series matchups do not matter. The real matchups are what comes on the ice. The Rangers are loaded with massive pieces on their forward core, with guys like Artemi Panarin and Patrick Kane at the forefront. And of course, the Rangers have Igor, who has a modest .914 SV%, but is the 6th best 40+ GP goalie in terms of GSAx with a 20.2. After what Igor did last year in the playoffs, it seems no longer possible to reasonably vote against him in any future playoff series. Once again, in these playoff series, goalies steal games, and Vitek Vanecek is not the type of goalie who will steal games, while Igor Shesterkin certainly is. This is why in the NJD-NYR matchup, even with home ice, the Devils just seem to fall just short in my eyes.
Islanders
Similar to the Rangers, the Isles live a state away and have created a fun and grueling rivalry with the Devils. The Islanders are sitting at 4th in the Metro, and are likely to lock up that 1st WC spot. This means that if the Devils were to steal 1st place in the Metro from Carolina, they would play the Isles. This is also a potential Round 2 matchup if the Devils were to defeat the Rangers and the Isles defeat the Canes. The Islanders also have dominated both the Rangers and Devils this season. In their 3 games against one another this season, the Isles won 2 of them. The Devils were outscored 12-9, but they outshot the Islanders 103-85. Before we speak on the elephant in the room, let's look at the matchup elsewhere. The Islanders have a below 50% xGF%, showing that their offense just really isn't that up to snuff. Their defense is comparable to the Devils, while the Islanders will certainly be looking to Mat Barzal and Bo Horvat to carry the offense. The Devils have a much more rounded offense that can run without Jack Hughes tearing it up, but it certainly does help when he does. However, of course, what sets the Islanders apart is Ilya Sorokin, who is 2nd among 40+ GP goalies in SV% (.925), while he's 3rd in the NHL behind Jusse Saros and Linus Ullmark in terms of GSAx. In terms of Wins Above Replacement, Ilya Sorokin is also 3rd, but miles ahead of 4th place Andrei Vasilevskiy. He proved himself as a Top 3 NHL Goalie, and if the NYI had an elite defense more comparable to what Boston has, Sorokin would be having numbers better than what Igor put up last year and what Linus Ullmark has right now. He also has played exactly one round in the playoffs too, so the Devils would not be able to shock him with the pressure. Ilya Sorokin is a tough nut to crack, but if anybody can do it, it is certainly this Devils offense, who will certainly be capable to pound Sorokin with relentless high pressure shots. If these two teams matchup in the playoffs, I'd give the edge to the Devils.
Hurricanes
Islanders
Similar to the Rangers, the Isles live a state away and have created a fun and grueling rivalry with the Devils. The Islanders are sitting at 4th in the Metro, and are likely to lock up that 1st WC spot. This means that if the Devils were to steal 1st place in the Metro from Carolina, they would play the Isles. This is also a potential Round 2 matchup if the Devils were to defeat the Rangers and the Isles defeat the Canes. The Islanders also have dominated both the Rangers and Devils this season. In their 3 games against one another this season, the Isles won 2 of them. The Devils were outscored 12-9, but they outshot the Islanders 103-85. Before we speak on the elephant in the room, let's look at the matchup elsewhere. The Islanders have a below 50% xGF%, showing that their offense just really isn't that up to snuff. Their defense is comparable to the Devils, while the Islanders will certainly be looking to Mat Barzal and Bo Horvat to carry the offense. The Devils have a much more rounded offense that can run without Jack Hughes tearing it up, but it certainly does help when he does. However, of course, what sets the Islanders apart is Ilya Sorokin, who is 2nd among 40+ GP goalies in SV% (.925), while he's 3rd in the NHL behind Jusse Saros and Linus Ullmark in terms of GSAx. In terms of Wins Above Replacement, Ilya Sorokin is also 3rd, but miles ahead of 4th place Andrei Vasilevskiy. He proved himself as a Top 3 NHL Goalie, and if the NYI had an elite defense more comparable to what Boston has, Sorokin would be having numbers better than what Igor put up last year and what Linus Ullmark has right now. He also has played exactly one round in the playoffs too, so the Devils would not be able to shock him with the pressure. Ilya Sorokin is a tough nut to crack, but if anybody can do it, it is certainly this Devils offense, who will certainly be capable to pound Sorokin with relentless high pressure shots. If these two teams matchup in the playoffs, I'd give the edge to the Devils.
Hurricanes
The Devils and the Hurricanes are the two frontrunners in the Metro division, and have since the Rangers had their 2 week mediocrity stretch. Both sides have taken 2 games of the 4 they played this season, and if they meet in the playoffs, it will almost certainly be in Round 2. Who would have home ice is yet to be determined, but I'm not too sure it matters if these two play. The games would be tight and close. The games they played this season were. The Hurricanes have a fantastic forward core that can certainly run circles around the Devils defense and Vitek Vanecek. They have a 58% xGF%, better than the Devils, and their defense has been really solid. The Canes however suffer from a fate that the Devils know too well. Their goaltending is not up to par with that of the Rangers, Isles, and Bruins. Freddie Andersen has put up meager numbers in the 30 games he has gotten to play, while Pyotr Kotchetkov was sent back to AHL Chicago Wolves. For once, the Devils probably have the edge in goaltending. Vanecek has put up better numbers than Andersen, who has saved 6.1 goals less than expected. However, the way the Canes have played all season has proved that they don't necessarily need elite goaltending. And that's what probably makes the Canes the scariest team out of the Metro. They don't have the elite goaltending, they don't even have above average goaltending. But they still lead the Metro, they still are a powerhouse in the east. Once again, this potential playoff matchup could go either way. However, the edge probably goes to the Canes.
The Devils certainly have what it takes to fight with every single team, however, they're likely going to need to go through both the Rangers and Canes if they want to make it to the ECF, which is scary to look at in the POV of the Devils. The Islanders are no joke either. Each and every series will be fought hard, but the Devils certainly can win any series they have. If they make it past round 2, they could beat anybody, even the Bruins.
Verdict
So, do the Devils have what it takes to compete for the Cup? The short answer: yes. The long answer: the Devils certainly can win any series without expecting a major upset, however they will face tough series from day one of the playoffs. If they expect to win in May and June, their stars, such as Timo Meier, will need to perform in the early rounds and Vitek Vanecek will need to take his game up a notch, because being an average/slightly above average goalie in the playoffs will not cut it for this Devils team.
The Devils certainly have what it takes to fight with every single team, however, they're likely going to need to go through both the Rangers and Canes if they want to make it to the ECF, which is scary to look at in the POV of the Devils. The Islanders are no joke either. Each and every series will be fought hard, but the Devils certainly can win any series they have. If they make it past round 2, they could beat anybody, even the Bruins.
Verdict
So, do the Devils have what it takes to compete for the Cup? The short answer: yes. The long answer: the Devils certainly can win any series without expecting a major upset, however they will face tough series from day one of the playoffs. If they expect to win in May and June, their stars, such as Timo Meier, will need to perform in the early rounds and Vitek Vanecek will need to take his game up a notch, because being an average/slightly above average goalie in the playoffs will not cut it for this Devils team.
Thank you for reading Beyond Center Ice! Please check in again next time, and share this blog with your hockey-loving friends!
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