Playoff Preview: Boston Bruins vs Florida Panthers

The President's Trophy winning, history making Boston Bruins start their playoff journey with the hot and ready Florida Panthers.

The Bruins and Panthers are going to fight it out. As you probably know, the Boston Bruins were the best team in hockey and put up the best regular season in NHL history. They were clinched for the President's Trophy and the playoffs since March, and yet still dominated teams even when they were seemingly not putting 100% effort. The Panthers have been playing playoff hockey all season, as they have needed every bit of those 92 points with the Sabres and Pens finishing right on their tail. They were not clinched until after Game 81, which gave them just one game to get rested for this series. And man is it going to be a tough series. The Bruins are understandably heavy, HEAVY favorites to win this series, and it's up to Florida to prove them wrong. But before we get into all of that, let's see some stats for these teams:

The Bruins had the best on the surface season in the history of some stats being tracked. They finished with a 63 G% first in the league by nearly 7 whole percent. They've let in just 174 goals, which is barely more than 2 a game. They, surprisingly if you're just looking at goal numbers, don't have a top 10 defense in terms of letting in high and medium danger shots. They also aren't extraordinary in terms of blocked shots. Their Corsi% is also just 13th in the NHL, at 51.4. But, when they have the puck, they don't give it up, at least not in high danger zones. Only 48% of their giveaways are in the defensive zone. Some other stats are their 22.3 PP% and a league leading, incredible 87.3 PK%. 

Looking individually, the Bruins forward core is absolutely fantastic. Pastrnak was the big story, scoring 61 goals and over 110 points. Interestingly though, he was the only Bruins forward having an other worldly season. Only 2 Bruins have more than 30 xGoals, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak. But, that's where the Bruins really come into picture. Their depth. Their entire forward core knows how to play this system and fits in it. Garnet Hathaway for example has been a real threat defensively for the Bruins since his arrival in the Orlov trade. The Bruins have 4 forwards with above a 60 Corsi%, while they have 9 with a Corsi% above 50! Their depth is absolutely insane, and with Taylor Hall, Tomas Nosek, etc. all returning for game one, the options on the fourth line are crazy good and the Bruins probably sit with the best depth in the NHL. As for the Defense, they've also enjoyed massive success. They all block shots on a semi-equal pace and work together as a unit. 4 of them roll in with a Corsi% above 50, which is really good for a defensive group. Aside from Derek Forbort, the Bruins defense has elite OI xGA p60, each under 3.28, which is where I personally cut off the good from the average. Again, other than Forbort, they also don't let up as many high danger chances as other defenses, with Matt Grzelcyk boasting an incredible 2.45 in that stat. The addition of Dmitry Orlov has paid dividends and is making this Bruins defense look even better than it already is. And then in goal.

Linus Ullmark has either been the best or 2nd best goalie in the NHL this season, depending on what you look at. His SV% is astrominically high, and is absolutely incredible. He has a similarly incredible 42.4 GSAx, 2nd only to Juuse Saros. He does top Saros though at GSAx p60, which is explained by Saros playing far more games than Ullmark. Ullmark is the best starting goalie on SV% of course, and same with GAA. He and Swayman just won the Jennings Trophy for a reason. And Swayman has also been excellent, so if anything were to happen to Ullmark, they would have him to jump in. Overall, this entire Bruins team is fantastic, and some stats just don't quantify how dominant they are. They just are that dominant, and you proverbally "have to see it to believe it". 

The Florida Panthers just barely snuck into the playoffs with 92 points, more than 40 points less than the Bruins. They still have a lot going for them, though. Their xG% of 52.6 is top 11 in the NHL, and not actually that far behind Boston. Their Corsi% is 54.17, which is 3rd in the NHL and better than the Bruins. They control the puck a lot when they play. However, a lot of the issues with the Panthers stems from the fact that they let up a lot of high danger shots. This creates issues on their defense and goaltending as when their opponents do get the puck, they usually capitalize with it. Their PK% for example is bottom 10 in the NHL at just 75.9, while their PP is more respectable 22.8%. Now let's take a look at their individuals:
Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhague, and Sam Reinhart run this offense. They each have over 30 xG, and Barkov complements them well with 55 assists. They have 10 forwards with a 50+ Corsi%, while Matthew Tkachuk has a 3rd in the NHL 67 Corsi%, which is fantastic. They need him to step up big if they want to upset the Bruins. What gets concerning though about this depth is that just 5 Panthers forwards have a relative xG% that is positive. And, as you know, the Bruins depth is fantastic, so the Panthers will need their depth pieces to suddenly play a lot better. Moving on to Defense, Brandon Montour, Josh Mahura, and Aaron Ekblad have been the only 3 consistently solid Florida defenders this season. They each rock a Corsi% of 55+ and they look solid when I watch the Panthers. Gustav Forsling and Radko Gudas are both okay, and Marc Staal has been pretty meh this season. Montour has led this defense defensively, with Ekblad still the de facto leader, he just takes on a two-way role. Montour can play good D, block shots, and overall just be a positive influence when he's on the ice. For Florida to shut down Boston, they need Mahura Montour and Ekblad to all be on their top game. Not much else to say about the defense.

In net, this is where the Florida Panthers will have to look to win. The man who took them on his back and carried them straight to the playoffs: Alex Lyon. In his 15 games he put up better numbers than Bobrovsky, who has been having a solid season. But, Lyon has shown no signs he is ready to lay down the starting spot in the playoffs. He will start, and again, being such massive underdogs, he will need to step up and shut down this Bruins team that will likely outplay the Panthers in every game. 

Prediction
My Prediction: Bruins in 6
Season Series: 2-1-1 Boston

This series may surprise people by going longer than it is expected to go. I don't think this Florida team is going to go out without a big fight, and I think they can squeak out a couple of wins. 

The Bruins should easily outplay the Panthers in every game, but Alex Lyon should make every game close and if the Panthers can just figure out how to beat Linus Ullmark, they have a very real shot at winning this series. But, the Bruins are favorites for a reason, as their depth is so much better than the Panthers and so is their Defense, and they can just outplay the Panthers if they all play up to snuff. Some key performers on each team that need to step up are David Pastrnak, Linus Ullmark, Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, and Alex Lyon. All in all, I think this series really could go to 6 games, and the Panthers could honestly take it to 7 if they make it to game 6. This series will be fun to watch, but yet probably the 2nd to least interesting. I'm still excited for the puck to drop on game 1 Monday night, though.

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