Playoff Preview: Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Islanders
Our final series out east: The Hurricanes vs the Wild Card New York Islanders!
The Hurricanes this season were really, really good. They were top 10 with a 55.5 G%, while their xG% was best in the NHL by a lot, at 58.2. Their Corsi% was 59.87, best in the NHL, and it wasn't close on that either. This Hurricanes team boasted some of the best numbers under the hood, but their main issue has always been converting that dominance into real dominance. They have 36 less goals than they are expected to have, and a lot of that has to do with the lack of finishing. Carolina was tied for the worst shooting% in the entire NHL, with 4.67% of their shots going in the net. They're clean last in unblocked shot shooting percentage, while their SOG S% was pretty mid. 32.5% of their unblocked shots straight out miss the net, worst in the NHL. Their defense though has picked up a lot of the slack, having the best share of takeaways in the NHL, but they do giveaway the puck at a concerning rate. All in all, this team dominates just as much as Boston does, just without the scoring touch.
And that scoring touch is not going to be there even more in the playoffs, as Andrei Svechnikov of course is missing the playoffs with an injury. Their leading scorer is Martin Necas with just 71 points, and while their depth looks solid, no one on this team screams goalscorer or producer anymore, especially with the loss of Svech. While they have a dominating 9 (8 without Svech) forwards above 60 Corsi%, and all 13 forwards playing in these playoffs have above a 53 Corsi%, but they still finish deadlast in the league in scoring. Firstly though, those Corsi numbers are insane. The Hurricanes minus Andrei Svechnikov account for 5 of the top 7 skaters in the NHL in Corsi. No Bruins are up there, it's 5 Hurricanes and two Devils. But, back to shooting. Only Sebastian Aho has a positive Goals above Shooting Talent, at just .3, and everyone else is negative. This team needs to figure out how to score, and soon, otherwise they are going to get eaten alive by the Isles defense & Sorokin. This could create a lot of low-scoring, trap games.
And that scoring touch is not going to be there even more in the playoffs, as Andrei Svechnikov of course is missing the playoffs with an injury. Their leading scorer is Martin Necas with just 71 points, and while their depth looks solid, no one on this team screams goalscorer or producer anymore, especially with the loss of Svech. While they have a dominating 9 (8 without Svech) forwards above 60 Corsi%, and all 13 forwards playing in these playoffs have above a 53 Corsi%, but they still finish deadlast in the league in scoring. Firstly though, those Corsi numbers are insane. The Hurricanes minus Andrei Svechnikov account for 5 of the top 7 skaters in the NHL in Corsi. No Bruins are up there, it's 5 Hurricanes and two Devils. But, back to shooting. Only Sebastian Aho has a positive Goals above Shooting Talent, at just .3, and everyone else is negative. This team needs to figure out how to score, and soon, otherwise they are going to get eaten alive by the Isles defense & Sorokin. This could create a lot of low-scoring, trap games.
This is because the Hurricanes defense is elite. No player on this defense has above a 3 on that pivotal stat, on-ice xGA p60, and Stefan Noesen is quite literally the best skater in the NHL in terms of Corsi. He's also the best in terms of the stat I just mentioned two sentences ago, and Calvin de Haan is right up there with him. The Canes may be one of the best put together teams this entire season, and if they knew how to score, they'd've had just as good, if not better, season rankings than the Bruins.
In Goal, the Canes have to choose between Annti Raanta and Freddie Andersen. I would ideally like to see them roll with newbie Pyotr Kotchetkov, but he's down in Charlotte. Now Neither Andersen nor Raanta have stats that are anything to write home about, but their team is so good that it doesn't really matter who you put in goal.
In Goal, the Canes have to choose between Annti Raanta and Freddie Andersen. I would ideally like to see them roll with newbie Pyotr Kotchetkov, but he's down in Charlotte. Now Neither Andersen nor Raanta have stats that are anything to write home about, but their team is so good that it doesn't really matter who you put in goal.
The New York Islanders are 11th in the NHL with a 52.72 G%, but their xG% is lower at a 50.03. The have a low 49.6 Corsi%, and this has been the story of the Isles all season. They haven't been able to score that many goals, but they play good defense and get good goaltending. Their shooting percentage is similarly bad, just like the Canes, but unilke the Canes, this is by design. They don't shoot a ton, they get goals when they can and move on with good defense and goaltending otherwise. Their expected goal differential is literally 0, and they have a solid share of takeaways. A little more than half of their giveaways come at the defensive zone. Let's take a look at some individual stats.
Mat Barzal has been injured for a while, and the team was supposed to be done. They rallied, played really well, and now they're going to have him back for this playoff run. Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, and Bo Horvat have been their solid scorers since the Barzal injury, and the Isles have 8 forwards above a 50 Corsi%. Barzal led this offense, so his return is pivotal. Maybe he can add a little bit more scoring that can propel this Islanders team. There's not much else to say about this forward group though, as they all just play the Islanders hockey we have known for years now. Now, we move on to defense.
Noah Dobson has had a really good season with the Isles, leading the defense with a 57 Corsi%, as well as looking okay on the other major defensive metrics. He and Sebastian Aho (yes, same name as the Hurricane) have been the two solid defenders in terms of relative expected goals, while everyone else gets the statbook showing them as meh defenders, which I think is not the full story. These defenders are mainly all purely defensive, so they will not get the offensive stats helping them like Dobson does. But, they are still really solid, pure Isles defenders that can help out Ilya Sorokin in net. Speaking of Sorokin is on another level this season. With a 38.7 GSAx, Sorokin finished 3rd and propelled himself into the discussion of best goalie in the NHL. His SV% is .924, which is great, and he has single handedly made this team bearable. With all of this, Sorokin will need to continue his greatness in net during this series if the Islanders are to make it through.
Prediction
Mat Barzal has been injured for a while, and the team was supposed to be done. They rallied, played really well, and now they're going to have him back for this playoff run. Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, and Bo Horvat have been their solid scorers since the Barzal injury, and the Isles have 8 forwards above a 50 Corsi%. Barzal led this offense, so his return is pivotal. Maybe he can add a little bit more scoring that can propel this Islanders team. There's not much else to say about this forward group though, as they all just play the Islanders hockey we have known for years now. Now, we move on to defense.
Noah Dobson has had a really good season with the Isles, leading the defense with a 57 Corsi%, as well as looking okay on the other major defensive metrics. He and Sebastian Aho (yes, same name as the Hurricane) have been the two solid defenders in terms of relative expected goals, while everyone else gets the statbook showing them as meh defenders, which I think is not the full story. These defenders are mainly all purely defensive, so they will not get the offensive stats helping them like Dobson does. But, they are still really solid, pure Isles defenders that can help out Ilya Sorokin in net. Speaking of Sorokin is on another level this season. With a 38.7 GSAx, Sorokin finished 3rd and propelled himself into the discussion of best goalie in the NHL. His SV% is .924, which is great, and he has single handedly made this team bearable. With all of this, Sorokin will need to continue his greatness in net during this series if the Islanders are to make it through.
Prediction
My prediction: Islanders in 7
Season Series: 3-1 Hurricanes
This may be my biggest upset pick, as the Isles are heavily not expected to do much in the series, but let me explain myself. Ilya Sorokin has a huge edge over Freddie, and it's not even close. I expect him to steal a game or two from the Canes in this series easily, as he is one of the best goalies in the world right now. The Hurricanes are suffering from the loss of Svech, and they've looked lost at points without him. Adding on to that is the Canes struggles with shooting mixed with the fact that they have to play Sorokin, means that I think they won't get many goals this series. I think there will be a lot of 2-1 or 3-2 games this series, and I'd honestly give the edge to the Isles in most of those games. I think the Isles are poised to put on a show, and with Barzal back, they can get some more goals and maybe get the edge. That's why I think this series will not only go to 7 games, but see an Islanders victory.
This may be my biggest upset pick, as the Isles are heavily not expected to do much in the series, but let me explain myself. Ilya Sorokin has a huge edge over Freddie, and it's not even close. I expect him to steal a game or two from the Canes in this series easily, as he is one of the best goalies in the world right now. The Hurricanes are suffering from the loss of Svech, and they've looked lost at points without him. Adding on to that is the Canes struggles with shooting mixed with the fact that they have to play Sorokin, means that I think they won't get many goals this series. I think there will be a lot of 2-1 or 3-2 games this series, and I'd honestly give the edge to the Isles in most of those games. I think the Isles are poised to put on a show, and with Barzal back, they can get some more goals and maybe get the edge. That's why I think this series will not only go to 7 games, but see an Islanders victory.
That's it! That's the Eastern Conference First Round Matchups! Thank you for reading these, and stay tuned tomorrow for the West!
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