Playoff Preview: Edmonton Oilers vs Los Angeles Kings
Our 2nd Western Conference preview pits the LA Kings vs the Edmonton Oilers!
This series is a rematch of last season, where the Oilers won. The Kings will look to revenge, and they have a solid team to do it. On the other hand, the Oilers come into the playoffs on a 9 game win streak, have the best player in the world, and look unstoppable. They're the hottest team in hockey and some people's pick to win the Stanley Cup. This series should be an exciting one, and let's take a look at the teams.
The Edmonton Oilers are, as I said, the hottest team in the NHL going into these playoffs. They're on a 9 game win streak and are 22-5-5 since the All-Star Break. They lead the NHL in Goals For (325), and are 2nd to the Bruins with a 69 GD. They're 4th in the NHL with 55.94 G% and 3rd with 56.07 xG%. Their Corsi% is 52.07, top 10 in the NHL, so consistently offensively they are top 10. Their Shooting% is top of the NHL, above even the Bruins. The reason why they're not on the same points echelon as the Bruins tho: they give up way more goals than expected. Their xGA is a lot lower than their actual GA, which is concerning. They giveaway the puck way too much in the defensive zone, which is going to be a problem in the playoffs. They also aren't that physical which also could run into issues.
Individually, we need to talk about the elephant in the room. Connor McDavid had the best season in recent history this season, so let's talk about it. He put up 153 points and 63 goals, while also shoring up his defensive play a lot from last season. McDavid is incredible. His Corsi% is 60, which is not close to top in the NHL but the way McDavid plays, it doesn't matter if he controls pace of play. All he needs is one shot, and bam, the Oilers have a goal. But, McDavid also has a lot of help. Zach Hyman, Leon Draisaitl, and RNH all each put up over a PPG pace, and Zach Hyman leads the NHL with 51.3 xG. Those 4 are going to be unstoppable in these playoffs, but the Oilers also have really solid depth. 12 forwards on the Oilers got 10 or more goals this season, a good stat for the playoffs where defenses will be focusing so much on the top line. Defensively though, the Oilers struggle. Just Evan Bouchard and Philip Broberg have Corsi%'s cleanly above 50, and Bouchard is the only Oiler with a solid Relative Goals%. Bouchard Broberg and Brett Kulak though form a 3 man army in taking down opposing offenses, and the Oilers will need them to play well alongside Mattias Ekholm and Darnell Nurse. All of this to say though, these defenders simply just need to play average for the Oilers to win games. Because the forward core is so great, the defense doesn't need to be as elite.
In goal, the Oilers are obviously going to go with Stuart Skinner. He had a solid season, with 6.8 GSAx and a .913 SV%, while Jack Campbell had a horrific season. Campbell is getting hot though, but there is absolutely no reason for the Oilers to start him over Stu, who has had a really solid season. This Oilers team as a whole reminds me a lot of last year's Colorado Avalanche, which is certainly a good thing to be compared to. Stu and Kuemper had very similar numbers, but if Stu can play better in the playoffs, the Oilers can take the West by absolute storm.
The Kings have an uphill battle in this series. Facing the Oilers is going to be a tough task for any team, and to do it in the First Round is going to seem impossible. But, this Kings team had a solid season. They finished middle of the pack in G%, while they got a lot higher in xG%, with the difference between the two numbers being 2 whole percent, which means this Kings team just had issues capitalizing. They were top 10 in Corsi% as well with 51, and defensively, the Kings were okay. A whopping 66% of their giveaways were in the defensive zone, which is 3rd worst in the NHL, but this number needs context. The context is that they simply didn't give away the puck that much, and yeah, when they did, it was usually not great. They also don't have a great share of takeaways, but the way the Kings play sees that turnovers from either side just aren't that common.
Individually, the Kings run as a unit. Anze Kopitar was their best player, but this is a Kings team with no superstar. Kevin Fiala had a great season cut short due to injuries, but he is expected to return for game 1 against Edmonton. Ideally they also return with Alex Edler. The Kings unit relies heavily on their defense being solid, as all of their defenders had some decent seasons. For the Forwards, getting production everywhere is going to be key, and I think they definitely have a slight, very small edge over the Oilers on their depth department. The Kings skater group is definitely top 6 or 7 in the NHL, and I think that warrants a bit of respect.
In goal, the Kings have to make a choice. Joonas Korpisalo has played fantastically since the trade that sent him to LA from Columbus, but Phoenix Copley also has played pretty well. Copley saved this team from disaster earlier in the season, but Korpisalo is playing so well, with a 12.7 GSAx, that he might just simply earn that starter spot based off that. Having Copley though as an option is fantastic for if Korpi has a bad game, and it really reminds me of the Bubble playoffs where the CBJ were able to rotate between Korpi and Merzlikins.
Prediction
My prediction: Oilers in 6
Season Series: 2-2
I think that Edmonton is just so unstoppable. I like the way the Kings have been playing, but the Oilers have just been on a completely different level. This game could easily go to 7 games though, and I would not be surprised if it did. What would shock me though is a Kings victory, as defeating this Oilers team right now looks absolutely impossible to do. But, the Kings do have some things going for them. I like their defensive core a lot more, and Korpisalo is a better goalie than Stu Skinner. But, McDavid and co. can easily just drive this Oilers team through.
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