Playoff Preview: Vegas Golden Knights vs Winnipeg Jets
Here we go starting the Western Conference! Our first matchup: the Vegas Golden Knights vs the Winnipeg Jets!
We'll start with the Underdog Jets this time. At a 52.35 G%, the Jets finish just 4 spots below Vegas, while they come in middle of the pack in xG%, again just 4 spots below VGK. They just miss out on a top 10 Corsi% at 11th with a 51.49, which is actually far ahead of Vegas. They've scored a lot less than they are expected to, which is a concern rooted directly into this team that makes them extremely similar to the New York Islanders in a way. They have a below average shooting percentage, solid defense and great goalie. They truly are the Islanders of the West. Speaking of that defense, they look okay when you watch them and the numbers match that, with them leading the mid train in several defensive categories. Let's move to the individual side of things.
The Winnipeg Jets are a team with no superstar. Kyle Connor comes the closest, just narrowly missing out on the PPG rate, but they rely a lot on their depth. Notably, Nik Ehlers has been injured and horrificly misused, halting what I thought would be his utter breakout season and making him look like a bad forward. The Jets probably should decide what to do with him this offseason, because they refuse to give him ice time, but that's besides the point. The Jets offense can be anemic at times, and in this series they will absolutely need major performances out of their top 4 guys, who are the only 4 consistent players on this forward group. Mainly Kyle Connor will need to step it up. Their depth would look nicer if Cole Perfetti were to be an option too, but he's seemingly out for at least game one, if not longer. The Jets actually have 9 forwards though with a Corsi% above 55, which is impressive for a team that looks so bad on offense at points. PLD's been great, but I'm sure they miss Pat Laine's consistent scoring touch on this team that needs more goals so badly.
On Defense, we saw Josh Morrissey become an absolute beast. I'll be shocked if he doesn't get some Norris votes, as he had an incredible season on both sides of the puck. He sets up great plays but can get back and play shutdown D pretty easily. Aside from him, their defense looks really solid. Another parallel to NYI. Noah Dobson and Josh Morrissey this season. They've had similar roles on similar teams. Funny how it works out like that.
In net, the Jets roll out with top 4 goalie in the league Connor Hellebuyck. He finished with 30.8 GSAx, 4th in the NHL, and a .920 SV% is also 4th in the NHL. Helle had a massive resurgence year, proving he is still an absolutely electric goalie, and the Jets needed it. He has steadied the ship and led this team straight into playoff hockey, and for them to win this series, he'll need to hold off the VGK. I think he has a shot.
The Vegas Golden Knights showed some signs of weakness during the season, but they still rolled in with an impressive 54.3 G%, 9th in the NHL, and a 10th in the NHL 52.8 xG%. Their offense was pretty solid overall, and they controlled the puck not very well despite that. They finished bottom half of the league with a 48.6 Corsi%, which is concerning for a team that is going to need every shot they can get versus Connor Hellebuyck. They have only scored a goal more than expected, so they are again just gonna need to be consistent. On defense, they look good, not allowing many HD shots, and giveaways are not as big of an issue, as they are on top of playoff teams with only 45.8% of their giveaways being in the D zone. Moving on to the individual aspect, the Golden Knights are like the Jets in that they do not have the prototypical superstar. They're paying Eichel like it but he's putting up very similar numbers to Kyle Connor. The thing though that the VGK have is consistent scoring from everyone. They pretty much know what they're going to get from each and every player. And that kind of consistency is really really good for a playoff run, when some guys might get shut down more and more so everyone else will need to continue it.
On defense, the Golden Knights do not have a Josh Morrissey type. But, they do have some solid defense from some solid guys. You know Pietrangelo is going to be solid for you night in and night out, and guys like Brayden McNabb have been scarily solid on that Vegas Blue Line. There's a reason this team is considered to have a top 10 defense in the NHL and it's these guys. They all have really good defensive metrics, and honestly, I do not see how they will possibly have an issue with shutting down this Winnipeg lineup. That lineup just doesn't have the firepower to break Vegas, in my honest opinion.
In goal, the Golden Knights have a question mark. They have 3 clear options to me: do you start Laurent Brossoit, who has looked really good in his few games with a GSAx over >5, Logan Thompson, who will not be fully healthy in this series after this admittedly meh season in Vegas, or Jonathan Quick, the veteran who has done this before, albeit he has had a truly awful season, though he's looked a little better since arriving. This is a question that could reasonably resolve itself in any of the 2 ways, and if I were in charge, I would try Brossoit in game one. He's just looked too good to not try out, and Quick is there in case it doesn't work out. If nothing works in goal between Brossoit or Quick and it goes to game 7, expect Quick or newly returning from injury Logan Thompson to get the nod, because Thompson will be ready and Quick has that playoff experience.
Predictions
My prediction: VGK in 5
Season Series: 3-0-0 to VGK
This score does look lopsided, but don't get me wrong, these games will be close. I think every last one of them is gonna come down to the bitter end, but I do think Vegas will get the edge more often than not. Their team is just so much better than Winnipeg in every facet that isn't goaltending, and while Helle can steal a game, it's gonna be hard for him to steal more if the team just simply doesn't score, and Vegas can actually score, so they can't rely on 2-1 wins to get playoff wins. The way the Jets win though is to get good scoring on top of elite goaltending, and then suddenly this game can go the distance, and anything can happen in game 7. I'm excited to see Whiteout in Winnipeg again, as the playoff atmosphere in their barn is absolutely electric.
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