Who Makes the Playoffs in Each Conference?

They say that once you're in, anything can happen. Getting in though, is half the battle...

Above is a graph by MoneyPuck on playoff odds. A majority of teams have their Make Playoffs chances at 100%. Of those teams, 9 are clinched: Edmonton, Vegas, LA, New Jersey, NY Rangers, Canes, Bruins, Bolts, and Leafs. The other 3: Dallas, Minnesota, and Colorado, are each just 1 or 2 points away from being clinched. So it's safe to say that 11 playoff spots are locked in, 6 on east, 5 on west. That leaves 5 to make it the 16 that are there, with the Avs almost certainly taking home one of those 5 spots. With just 5-7 games left to play, we are in for an interesting last couple of weeks as these teams jockey their positions. But, who is going to make it in each conference?

The West

I've decided to start with the Western Conference because simply put, it is less interesting than the east. Out west, there is basically one WC spot already locked in. The Seattle Kraken are a point ahead of the 2nd WC Jets with a whole 2 games in hand. Their last games are extremely easy as well, with 2 coming against the Coyotes, one each against the Hawks and Nucks, and then 2 against the Golden Knights who will likely be resting for the first round. The MoneyPuck graph agrees, putting Seattle's odds at 98.1%. So, there is only one WC spot up for grabs, and 3 teams that can grab it. Here is how the standings currently stacks up:

WC1. Seattle: 75 GP 41-26-8 90 pts 
WC2: Winnipeg: 77 GP 43-31-3 89 pts
Outside looking in:
Calgary: 77 GP 36-26-15 87 pts
Nashville: 76 GP 38-30-9 84 pts

Winnipeg, the current WC2, should not be this low in the standings if you were last paying attention to the standings a couple of months ago. They've had a massive collapse as of late, falling from a sure playoff team to a questionable one that could still fall out very easily. Between them, Calgary, and Nashville, Winnipeg ranks 2nd of the 3 at a 51.52% xG%, and Connor Hellebuyck is the second best goalie of the 3 starters with 22.3 GSAx. They've had an unlucky bottom 5 performance at GFAx, with -19 goals less than they are expected to have. All that has come to a head now, where they are dangerously close to falling out. Their next two games will decide everything, as they have the Flames first and then the Preds. They get the Sharks after that, which should be an easy win, which would lead them into their matchups versus playoff teams in Minnesota and Colorado. Worth noting is that they will be at home for their games against Nashville and Calgary, which could prove important as the Jets are 24-12-2 at home this season. If they get the job done in those two games, it will be nearly impossible for them to miss, as Calgary would have to essentially win out and Jets almost lose out. Still though, if the Jets were to lose to Calgary, they would only be tied. If they can get the job done against the Preds and Sharks, they will put themselves at a decent spot, but still would need to get the W against one of the Wild or Avs. All in all they have a solid squad that is finally emerging from the cold streak, and being the current leader always helps. A win against Calgary is imperative in ensuring a playoff berth though. 

Calgary, very similarly to Winnipeg, was not projected to be fighting for a playoff spot earlier in the season. The tale of the Calgary Flames is an interesting one, because they have an incredible forward core. They are the best of the 3 fighting for this spot with a 53.7% xGF%, which is top 7 in the NHL. Their Corsi% is 56.8%, 2nd in the NHL only behind the Hurricanes. Their Fenwick is also second in the NHL. But, you look at the raw goals far, and Calgary is only 17th in the NHL, behind non-contending teams like Buffalo, Vancouver, and St. Louis. Why is their seemingly top 5 offense not producing when it comes to goals. Part of it can be blamed on unluckiness, as the Flames have 15 goals less than they are expected to. Part of it can also be explained when looking at the team's individuals, where you see that they simply do not have goal scorers on the team. This explains why their S% and GF% is so low compared to their xGF. Tyler Toffoli and Andrew Mangiapane are listed as their best shooters on this graph that shows goals to xGoals: 

As you can see, they simply do not have enough finishers or snipers on the team to score the goals that they are expected to have. Still though, with the sheer power their lineup brings, they should still be winning games. The other reason is between the pipes. Jacob Markstrom is playing at a below average level, with an .890 SV% and a -4.8 GSAx. Markstrom is actively hurting the Flames chances to win when he plays, and Dan Vladar has had a worse season. Markstrom is known for his clutch late season/playoff performances though, so if there is a time where Markstrom gets it together, it is now. They are 2 points behind the Jets, and they have a prime opportunity to catch them soon, as they play WPG on Wednesday. This will unfortunately be at the end of a back to back where the Flames face off against the Chicago Blackhawks, which should be an easy win for Calgary. If they don't get points against Chicago, winning against Winnipeg becomes more of a must than it already is. If they take care of the Hawks and the Jets, they can win out and guarantee playoffs over the Jets because of the head to head tiebreaker (they would have 4 points in the tiebreaker and the Jets 2). If the Jets win, the Flames are essentially eliminated, as they would need to win out and have the Jets pretty much lose out. The Flames also have to play the Preds in Nashville in Game 81, which could be a must win for both sides depending on how they each do against the Jets. The Flames are 17-11-11 on the road this year, and they will take on both the Preds and the Jets away from Calgary. Their remaining two games are against the Sharks and Canucks, two games they should win. Everything will come down to their game against Winnipeg, and if they win, and the Preds have won out, then their game against the Preds will also matter.

The Nashville Predators need a lot to go their way to make the playoffs. The most points they can get is 96, and they aren't even a playoff team guaranteed if they beat the Jets and Flames. Before we get into those scenarios, let's examine how the Preds got here. Nashville has been a bottom 11 offense this season, both in Goals% and xG%. They have a 47.9% xG%, which is 8th worst in the NHL and worst among the 3 teams competing for WC2. Their Corsi is not much better, at 48%, which is again worst of these 3 teams. For the forward core they have, they are expected 42 more goals than they have. Part of this can certainly be attributed to luck but part of it must go to the forwards for not finishing. Filip Forsberg is the only Preds player actually performing well on the xG-G ratio, and everyone else falls lower and lower. Some can be considered unlucky, again, but the finishing on this team is simply not up to snuff with other offenses. An interesting stat is that 20.77% of Nashville's goals come off of rebounds, which is the highest in the NHL. This can be spun in two different ways: 1. the Predators capitalize on their second chances, or 2. The Predators are not good at shooting so they get a lot of goals from lucky rebounds. Personally I think it's a little of both. Defensively the Preds are solid, they allow a lot of high danger scoring chances, but they can because of who's in net. Juuse Saros has statistically been the most valuable goaltender, with 6.93 Wins Above Replacement, higher than Linus Ullmark. He only has a .918 SV%, which is likely why you won't hear his name called for the Vezina, but he has a 41.6 GSAx, slightly higher than Ullmarks' 41.2. He has single handedly saved this Preds team from falling to around where the Blues are at, and he will need to continue saving the Preds for them to make the playoffs. The Preds can control their own destiny if the Flames beat the Jets. After losing to the Stars last night, the Preds made it extremely difficult on themselves. It's still not impossible, though. Before the games against Winnipeg and Calgary, they have Vegas and Carolina, games that will be tough to win. If Juuse Saros steals those two, they need to hope for Calgary to defeat WPG, and then they can win out. If that doesn't happen, and WPG beats Calgary, the Preds need the Jets to lose one of their other games. If the Jets lose in OT in their other loss, it doesn't matter, because the Preds would have the tiebreak advantage if they beat the Jets. If the Jets were to force OT before losing to the Preds, then the Preds would need them to lose 2 points elsewhere, which is either 2 OTLs or a regulation loss. Unlike the Flames and the Jets, the Preds do not have control of their destiny, but Juuse Saros can put them at 96 points by stealing the next 6 games: Each against a playoff team or one of the other two teams fighting for WC2. 

So, who does make it out of the West among these three teams?

As fun as it would be to see Juuse Saros in the playoffs, it just doesn't seem likely. That is why I think the final playoff spot will go to the Flames or the Jets. Both teams are struggling as of late, and both teams have similar strength of schedule going forward. It will truly come down to who wins their game against each other. And because it is a back to back for Calgary, and Connor Hellebuyck has done this sort of thing before, I think it will be the Winnipeg Jets making it out. Here are my odds at who wins though, and I'll also add MoneyPuck's odds so you can compare:

Winnipeg 56% (68.5% on moneypuck)
Calgary 48% (29.9% on moneypuck)
Nashville 6% (3.5% on moneypuck)

The East

The East, unlike the West, is much more compact, and thus, the next 2 weeks are going to be very exciting out east. There are 3 teams right close together in the standings, one that is slightly behind but with games in hand, and one that is all but eliminated but technically still has a shot. Here is how the standings look: 

WC1 NY Islanders 78 GP 39-30-9 87 pts
WC2 Pittsburgh 77 GP 38-29-10 86 pts
Outside looking in:
Florida 77 GP 39-31-7 85 pts
Buffalo 75 GP 37-31-7 81 pts
Ottawa 77 GP 37-34-6 80 pts

The Islanders, current WC1, have dug themselves a hole by losing both their games this weekend, first getting thrashed by the Lightning 5-0, and then losing a close divisional matchup to the Canes 2-1. This has put them in a precarious spot, with a game more played and the Penguins and Panthers (and Sabres) all able to catch them. This season, the Islanders have played much to what they were expected to play to. They sit at a 52% GF%, with a 49.6 xGF%. Their Corsi% is 49.1, which would look bad, but context is always important in stats like these. This is how the Islanders play hockey. They love scoring on their chances, but then playing solid defense. This shows as they are 4th in the NHL in blocked shots. They make sure that Sorokin is getting all the help we need. Now, let's talk about Ilya Sorokin. With a .923 SV% and a 35.2 GSAx, Sorokin is the 3rd best goalie in the NHL, and you can debate about whether or not he's better than Saros or Ullmark from there. Either way, he steals some games. Sorokin gets help from his defense too, who block 21.3% of the shot attempts on Sorokin, which is the 2nd highest among playoff contending goalies. Sorokin has the highest SV% on HD Unblocked Scoring Chances, with .808. Simply put, Ilya Sorokin is fantastic. And without him, this Islanders team would be nowhere near as good as they are. 

To make the playoffs, the Islanders need some things to happen. Firstly, they can ensure they finish above the loser of Florida vs Buffalo by winning the remainder of their games. To finish out their season they have the Lightning, Flyers, Capitals, and Habs. If they can win those 4 games, they ensure that they finish above either Florida or Buffalo. Their tiebreak situation is not great. They win the tiebreak vs Pittsburgh but lose it vs Florida and Buffalo. They need the Penguins to lose one of their last 5 games alongside the Isles winning out to ensure that they make the playoffs. The Islanders have a real good shot at it if they simply win out. They can worry about what the Penguins do when they're not playing.

Before I touch on Pittsburgh, Florida, or Buffalo, let's talk about the Senators. Because they are very unlikely to make it, I will not do a recap of how they got here. I will only talk about how they can make it. Firstly, they need to win out, which can help them against Buffalo and Florida. Then, they need the Panthers to lose 3 points in their last 4 games, which means the Panthers need to not get more than 5 points in their last 4 games. They will also need two of the Penguins, Islanders, and Sabres to not reach 90 points on the season. These are all theoretically possible, but highly unlikely, which is why the Senators are all but eliminated from playoff contention. 

Pittsburgh is currently the WC2 team, and they have the easiest shot at making the playoffs. They've had an up and down season highlighted by their stars wanting to go on one last cup run, and they made the leap from fringe to contender at least 4 times this season before dropping their play level. They have a top 10 expected offense, with a 53 xGF%. Their actual GF% though is 50. Once again they have a top 10 offense in Corsi, with a 51.82 Corsi%. They have the second lowest GFAx, with a -38. To explain why there is such a discrepancy, we can take a look at the graph below, mapping xGoals on bottom vs Goals on the Left. 

As you can see, they are mainly relying on the same few guys to get goals, and a lot of guys on the team simply just aren't putting the goals in the net. Their defenders do have really good forechecking and it creates good attacks, and eventually they do get decent goals in there. Their defense, speaking of, is pretty good. Only 47% of their giveaways are in the defensive zone, good enough for 7th in the NHL. The Penguins rank near the middle of the league, taking slightly above half of the takeaways that happen while they're playing. All in all, their defense plays pretty decently in front of Tristan Jarry, who has had a meh season. Jarry has a .909 SV%, but a -2.5 GSAx. The Penguins definitely want Jarry to return the form he was in last season, where he had 12.8 GSAx and was a really solid goalie.

Here down the stretch, they need to do one thing: win out. If the Pittsburgh Penguins win every game they have left, they make it in, no matter what. Their next two games will be tough, against the Devils and Wild, but after that it gets easier with the Red Wings, Blue Jackets, and Blackhawks. If they lose, things get more complicated, but all they need to worry about is winning. 

Going into the start of this season, the Florida Panthers were expected to be just as good as they were last season. That has not happened, though. They have a top 5 offense in xG%, with a 54.5%. Their Corsi% is 54 also, putting them top 3 in the NHL there. They have the highest Goals Expected per 60 Minutes in the NHL, with 3.13. With an offense as explosive as the Panthers, it's easy to wonder why this team is not an instant playoff team. And to be honest, there is no easy answer. You can first look at defense, but their defensive core is pretty run of the mill. You then look on goaltending, and Bobrovsky has 6.2 GSAx, which is solid, but only a .901 SV%. Bobrovsky this season is suffering from a phenomenon that can happen on teams with really good defenses and solid goalies. The goalies advanced metrics look okay, but the SV% just isn't there. And this just happens sometimes to goalies and it really affects how that team plays. For example, Bobrovsky will have games where he looks unbeatable, and those do happen a lot, and because they happen a lot, a majority of Florida's wins will see Bobrovsky putting up great numbers. But then, when Florida loses, Bobrovsky gives up 4 or 5 goals in around 30 shots and looks not so good. This also happens a substantial amount of times, and that tracks with Bobrovsky's win-loss record being 24-20-3. When Bobrovsky starts for the Panthers, half the time he will be fantastic, and the other half he will cost the Panthers the game. His inconsistency here is part of the reason why Florida is not a lock for the playoffs. The other reason has to do with the fact that the Florida Panthers are in an extremely tough division. The only non-competitive team in the Atlantic was the Canadiens, so every game Florida played in the division was really closely fought. Then, they also have to deal with the top 3 juggernauts, and since those top 3 are so good, it is impossible for Florida to get into the top 3, meaning they have to deal with the WC system. This, paired with Bobrovsky's inconsistent year, has catapulted the Panthers to where they are now. To make the playoffs, they will need to win out... and that's it! Because of their tiebreak advantage over the Islanders, and the fact that they play the Sabres for the tiebreaker there, the Panthers do not need to deal with any other team losing and will make the playoffs solely if they win every single game left in their season. To do that though, will be tough. Their next games are against a hungry Sabres team, then a Sens team that will probably still be fighting for their slim playoff life, and then the Capitals, and finally they end their season by playing the Leafs and Canes at home. It will certainly be a tough road, but the Panthers just need to win every game and they will make it in. If they lose one game, then they need to start worrying about the Islanders and Penguins losing, and if they lose to the Sabres, they will also need to worry about the Sabres who will suddenly be right back in this playoff race. Speaking of:

The Sabres are looking to end their playoff drought this year. And they have worked very hard to get here. The Sabres offense has looked really flashy at some points, but overall, a pretty meh offense, with 49.6 G% and 48.8 xG%. They have a solid 50.8 Corsi%, which shows that they are still controlling play somewhat even when they're not scoring. Key performers have especially stood out for the Sabres, namely Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin, who have both had incredible seasons. For Dahlin, it's been on both sides of the ice. They are also a team that relies heavily on the same few players to score their goals, with Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, Jeff Skinner, Dylan Cozens, and Victor Olofsson all above 20 goals with no one else on the team near them. In fact, those 5 players account for nearly 62% of all of Buffalo's goals. They are extremely top heavy on their forward core. 

Their defense does not really help out in front of goal, as the Sabres are the team with the 2nd to least amount of blocked shots. They also get beat up a lot, with less than 40% of hits that happen while the Sabres are playing were given out by them. They are probably the worst statistical team we have covered on this post, and the goaltending certainly does not help the case. Ukko-Pekka Luukonen and Eric Comrie each have a -5 and -6.9 GSAx, and a  .891 and .886 SV% respectively. Craig Anderson has been okay, but not consistent, with a .908 SV% and a 1.0 GSAx. If the Sabres were to make the playoffs, it might honestly be because they continue starting new rookie Devon Levi, who has only played one game but already has the best GSAx on the team, with 1.5. The Sabres, like the Panthers, simply need to win out to make the playoffs. They have the tiebreaker above the Islanders, and they would both finish with 95 points. They don't need to worry about the Penguins, as they can catch the Isles and by catching the Isles, they would beat the Panthers and thus pass them also. They have to first beat the Panthers, then the Red Wings, and then they have a rough 3 game road stand against the Canes, Rangers, and Devils. If they somehow manage to win all of those games, they would just need to beat the Sens and Blue Jackets to glide into the playoffs. While it may seem rough that they're playing on the road, the Sabres are one of the best teams away from home this season, with a 22-11-3 road record. If anybody can do this while on the road, it is the Sabres. Still though, chances they win all 7 games are slim. No matter what, they need to beat the Panthers and Red Wings. Doing so puts them at the same point total as the Panthers with a game in hand, and from there they can have similar hopes to the Panthers if they were to lose one of their tough road matchups. They likely can still make it if they win 6 of 7, which is still tough, but it would only require the Penguins or Isles to lose at least one game, which is pretty realistic. 

So, who makes it out of the East?

This is an extremely tough call for me. 3 separate teams can make it out just from winning out, but the Isles will get the spot if they capitalize and the other teams play realistically. The Sabres are also playing really good hockey as of their last 5 games, so them going on a hot streak is not that unrealistic. This is a bold prediction, but I do think the Sabres can go on that hot streak and sneak into the playoffs. Who will join them, though, is the next question. The Panthers are pretty much out of this race since this involves them losing to the Sabres, and between the Penguins and Isles, it's extremely hard to pick which team should do better. The Isles are playing rough hockey as of late, so I am going to go with the Penguins to join the Sabres in the Playoffs as WC1. 

Here are the odds I have each team making it on, the MoneyPuck odds are in parentheses:

Islanders: 64% (73%)

Penguins: 67% (61.3%)
Panthers: 55% (61.6%)
Sabres: 13% (4%)
Sens: <1% (0.1%)

All in all, the next couple of weeks for this playoff push are going to be extremely exciting to watch!

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