Who's A Contender and Who's A Pretender these Playoffs?
With just 8 days left in the regular season, playoff spots and matchups are starting to get revealed as each days tick by. 12 teams have clinched, with at least one more on the way extremely soon. However, with the nature of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, 8 teams get knocked out just a couple short weeks after the start of the playoffs. Which teams will contend, and which teams are the pretenders that will fall short when it matters?
The Teams
As I said in the open, 12 teams have clinched. I will go over each of them briefly in this post and decide if they're contenders or pretenders. Though, the Seattle Kraken will be the 13th team on this list as they are all but clinched for at least a WC spot out there in the West. However, they will be the only WC team on this list because it is uncertain who will be the remaining 3 wild card spot. Now, without further ado, let's take a look at the teams!
Seattle Kraken
Starting from the bottom down, the Seattle Kraken are all but guaranteed a spot in their first ever Stanley Cup Playoffs in just their 2nd season in the league. They've taken a massive step from last year, where they were one of the worst teams in the league. The defense in 2021-22 was solid for the Kraken, but has improved this season, for two main reasons. Firstly, their offensive game made great strides. In 21-22 they had 4 main forwards that could actually take control of the game and play better than average hockey from the forwards (48-55 CF%): Jared McCann, Jaden Schwartz, Jordan Eberle, and Morgan Geekie. This season they've improved to 6 cleanly over while 2 others have fluttered to that mark. They also have only one forward this year playing below average: Brandon Tanev. This has allowed for the defense to step up to average level, with the only exception being Jamie Oleksiak. It's also worth noting that last season, the Kraken had just 2 players above 10% Shooting Talent Above Average, while this year they have 6. Their forward core has taken a massive leap. The other factor is the goaltending. Last season, Seattle's started was Philip Grubauer, a big mistake. Grubauer was one of the worst goalies last season, and the Kraken brought in Martin Jones in the offseason. Jones hasn't set the world on fire, but he's played serviceable hockey, and Grubauer backing him up has been okay too. Not having horrible goaltending is a good way to win those tighter games, and the Kraken have gotten that this season.
Now, with all that being said, the Kraken have a rough road ahead when it comes to the playoffs. Being a WC team is never easy in the NHL Playoffs, being that you don't get home ice and you are oftentimes massive underdogs. The Kraken though could enjoy themselves if they lock up the first WC spot, ensuring they play into the Central division. They would see themselves playing the Avs, Stars, or Wild, and I think the Kraken would take that matchup over Vegas or Edmonton. Their most favorable matchup is probably Dallas, as Dallas is probably the weakest of the three in the Central. However though, they will not be favorites in any series, and without an elite, series stealing goalie like what the Jets and Preds would potentially have, I just don't see a way the Kraken make it out of round one this year. Playoff hockey in Seattle is going to be electrifying, though, and if they can manage to steal a game or two outside of Seattle they could very well see themselves with an upset in R1. Overall though, as the only WC team on this list of teams, I feel it unfair to judge them as a contender or a pretender, so I will give them their own title: happy to be here.
Dallas Stars
Keeping it in the West, the next team is Dallas. Dallas was contending for that top spot in the Central, but now it is looking more and more likely that Colorado or Minnesota will take it. This Stars team, though, is really solid. They rank 4th in the NHL and 2nd in the West with their xG% of 54.5%. Their actual G% is best in the West with 55.7%, leapfrogging Edmonton by half a percent. They're also a top 10 offense by way of Corsi%, with a 51. Their offense is expected to play this good too, as they've only scored 1 goal above expected. Their Power Play is top 10 as well. All in all their offense does well. You also have key performers like Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz. Joe Pavelski at times has found the fountain of youth, and if the Stars can get him to do it in the playoffs alongside their top performers, they have probably a top 5 offense among the playoff teams. They have a good mix of players that are lucky and unlucky, which is what a team needs come playoff time. They need both the guys who are looking to break their unlucky streak and guys who are playing above their performance level.
As I said in the open, 12 teams have clinched. I will go over each of them briefly in this post and decide if they're contenders or pretenders. Though, the Seattle Kraken will be the 13th team on this list as they are all but clinched for at least a WC spot out there in the West. However, they will be the only WC team on this list because it is uncertain who will be the remaining 3 wild card spot. Now, without further ado, let's take a look at the teams!
Seattle Kraken
Starting from the bottom down, the Seattle Kraken are all but guaranteed a spot in their first ever Stanley Cup Playoffs in just their 2nd season in the league. They've taken a massive step from last year, where they were one of the worst teams in the league. The defense in 2021-22 was solid for the Kraken, but has improved this season, for two main reasons. Firstly, their offensive game made great strides. In 21-22 they had 4 main forwards that could actually take control of the game and play better than average hockey from the forwards (48-55 CF%): Jared McCann, Jaden Schwartz, Jordan Eberle, and Morgan Geekie. This season they've improved to 6 cleanly over while 2 others have fluttered to that mark. They also have only one forward this year playing below average: Brandon Tanev. This has allowed for the defense to step up to average level, with the only exception being Jamie Oleksiak. It's also worth noting that last season, the Kraken had just 2 players above 10% Shooting Talent Above Average, while this year they have 6. Their forward core has taken a massive leap. The other factor is the goaltending. Last season, Seattle's started was Philip Grubauer, a big mistake. Grubauer was one of the worst goalies last season, and the Kraken brought in Martin Jones in the offseason. Jones hasn't set the world on fire, but he's played serviceable hockey, and Grubauer backing him up has been okay too. Not having horrible goaltending is a good way to win those tighter games, and the Kraken have gotten that this season.
Now, with all that being said, the Kraken have a rough road ahead when it comes to the playoffs. Being a WC team is never easy in the NHL Playoffs, being that you don't get home ice and you are oftentimes massive underdogs. The Kraken though could enjoy themselves if they lock up the first WC spot, ensuring they play into the Central division. They would see themselves playing the Avs, Stars, or Wild, and I think the Kraken would take that matchup over Vegas or Edmonton. Their most favorable matchup is probably Dallas, as Dallas is probably the weakest of the three in the Central. However though, they will not be favorites in any series, and without an elite, series stealing goalie like what the Jets and Preds would potentially have, I just don't see a way the Kraken make it out of round one this year. Playoff hockey in Seattle is going to be electrifying, though, and if they can manage to steal a game or two outside of Seattle they could very well see themselves with an upset in R1. Overall though, as the only WC team on this list of teams, I feel it unfair to judge them as a contender or a pretender, so I will give them their own title: happy to be here.
Dallas Stars
Keeping it in the West, the next team is Dallas. Dallas was contending for that top spot in the Central, but now it is looking more and more likely that Colorado or Minnesota will take it. This Stars team, though, is really solid. They rank 4th in the NHL and 2nd in the West with their xG% of 54.5%. Their actual G% is best in the West with 55.7%, leapfrogging Edmonton by half a percent. They're also a top 10 offense by way of Corsi%, with a 51. Their offense is expected to play this good too, as they've only scored 1 goal above expected. Their Power Play is top 10 as well. All in all their offense does well. You also have key performers like Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz. Joe Pavelski at times has found the fountain of youth, and if the Stars can get him to do it in the playoffs alongside their top performers, they have probably a top 5 offense among the playoff teams. They have a good mix of players that are lucky and unlucky, which is what a team needs come playoff time. They need both the guys who are looking to break their unlucky streak and guys who are playing above their performance level.
Looking at the defensive side of ice, things are all right there. Corsi is also affected by defense, so having a top 10 Corsi is great. The Stars also finish 9th in the NHL with only 48% of their giveaways being in the Stars zone. Their potential round 1 opponents, Seattle, Colorado, and Minnesota, are all behind them on this list. The thing the Stars do not do defensively though is block shots, finishing bottom 11 in that category. Another great sign for the Stars is that they allow the T-2nd least amount of High Danger Scoring Chances, tied with New Jersey, and only behind Carolina. Their individual defensive players are promising too, with Miro Heiskenan being a beast on both sides of the ice. Miro Heiskenan is 11th of every defenseman in the NHL in xRebounds Created, with 12.1. 5 of their defenseman are in the top 80 in terms of On-Ice High Danger Shot Attempts Against per 60 minutes, with the only one not ranking in the top 80 among their 6 highest playing defenseman is Jani Hakinpaa. All of this to say that the Stars have a really good defensive core and a huge difference maker on that blue line in Miro Heiskenan, which is a luxury not every team has.
In goal, Jake Oettinger took a good step forward this season, with a 9.4 GSAx. He stops the shots that are expected of superstar goalies, the medium danger shots. He's a pretty average goalie in terms of high danger Save %, but ultimately, the defense should be mitigating a lot of those chances. And they are mitigating a lot of those chances right now. Last playoffs, Jake Oettinger had one of the best playoff series of all time, but because the Stars last season did not have a good offense or defense, he was left out to dry and they lost in 7. If Jake Oettinger just performs at half of the level he performed at last playoffs, the Stars are a solid pick to move forward.
The Stars are a team that could be considered both a contender and a pretender. With Jake Oettinger, they can win any playoff series. Now, will they? It depends, the Wild and the Avs would probably both be favorites over Dallas, but I really think that the Stars could beat the Wild. Maybe not the newly healthy Colorado team, but they could beat the Wild. So, yes, I do think the Stars are a contender, but the Central has 3 great teams, and only 2 can make it out of Round 1. If the Stars get the short end on that front, that could make them pretenders, but it depends of course how they played.
The Stars are a team that could be considered both a contender and a pretender. With Jake Oettinger, they can win any playoff series. Now, will they? It depends, the Wild and the Avs would probably both be favorites over Dallas, but I really think that the Stars could beat the Wild. Maybe not the newly healthy Colorado team, but they could beat the Wild. So, yes, I do think the Stars are a contender, but the Central has 3 great teams, and only 2 can make it out of Round 1. If the Stars get the short end on that front, that could make them pretenders, but it depends of course how they played.
Minnesota Wild
The Minnesota Wild are a weird team to judge. On one hand, they are expected to be the 16th best offense in the NHL with an xG% of 50.98, but their actual offense ranks them 5 spots higher at 11. They are by far the weakest offense of the 3 fighting for the Central division crown. Their Corsi% is below 50, and their shooting percentage is bottom 10 in the NHL, being below 5. So, for an offense expected to be pretty middle of the road, why are they performing well? Other than Kirill Kaprisov, they don't have many great shooters. But, they still manage to win games. And that comes down to their defense and goaltending.
Their defense gives away the puck a lot in the defensive zone. Bottom 10 in that regard. But, what their defense does do is block a lot of shots. And the real reason is that they simply do not allow that many high danger shots, being at 6th in the NHL so far. Their defense does play a little shaky a lot, but it also still gets the job done and doesn't allow for many great chances on net. Looking at their personal, Calen Addison has played absolutely fantastic defense in the games he's played. He's 2nd in the NHL with only 2.17 On-Ice GAx p60. The only player above him is Calvin de Haan. Almost their entire defensive core too ranks above average on these stats and it really helps out in making up for what their offense lacks. Their forwards are also solid defenders, which makes for good, hearty hockey that could see playoff success. Moving on to goal, they have a 1a 1b kinda thing going on with Marc-Andre Fleury and Filip Gustavsson. Fleury has had a very comparable season to Jake Oettinger, while Filip Gustavsson has been absolutely fantastic. Gustavsson is a top 7 goalie in the NHL by GSAx, while playing nearly 20-25 less games than most of the people on that list. Gustavsson is also the 2nd best goalie in Medium Danger Scoring Chance SV%, only behind Ilya Samsanov. Meanwhile Fleury is a top 3 goalie in High Danger Scoring Chance SV%, only behind Sorokin and Swayman. All of this makes the rotation option extremely attractive for this postseason, as both goalies have their own arguments for which one should start. The Wild have two amazing goalies that they can use these playoffs and try to find success.
Will the Wild find success these playoffs? It honestly depends. Much like Dallas, they're gonna be stuck with a tough matchup no matter what, and unless they lose to Seattle or play really poorly, they can avoid the pretender title. Though, if I had to wager one team from the 3 in the Central that are great, I would honestly pick Minnesota to make it through to the WCF. They can beat the Avs on every facet of the ice except for forward core, and if one of their two goalies is playing like Gustavsson has here in the regular season, I don't see how anyone can stop them come playoff time.
Colorado Avalanche
Rounding out the Central is Colorado, the defending cup champs and #2 favorites to win it again this year. Colorado has dealt with injuries all season to key players and yet is still 1st in the Central and they control their destiny, if they win out they win the division. They have a pretty meh 51.3 xG%, but their actual G% is top 8 with 54.3. They control the play a lot, with a 52.3 Corsi%, but their games are expected to be close every time, with an xGD of .16. A lot has to do with the fact that their offensive personal is fantastic, with MacKinnon leading the way of course. They have a great mix of forwards that can electrify and forwards that can play boring, but effective two-way hockey. Like Dallas, they have a defenseman in Cale Makar that plays absolutely fantastic hockey on both sides of the ice and Makar is probably the best offensive defenseman in the entire NHL. They've lost a lot on their forward core since last year, but evidently they still have a solid forward core. Their defense has been pretty solid all season too. They rank in the middle in terms of defensive zone giveway % and while they don't block a lot of shots, they don't give up a ton of high danger shots either. All in all, their defense definitely took a step back this season. Cale Makar's injury bug this season hasn't helped, and it might've struck again with Makar seemingly out for a little while now. If they can get everyone back in time for the playoffs, they'll be fine.
The real reason why Colorado has been back where they are despite all the setbacks and regression is that between the pipes, they've improved. If you look at the numbers, it'll say Darcy Kuemper was a fine goalie in Colorado last season, but talk to any Avs fan and they'll tell you about the inconsistencies he had. Alexander Georgiev is not inconsistent. He's been a top 10 goalie this season and has played like it almost the entire year. Him being a rock in goal has steadying the ship and given the Avs a real shot at repeating this season.
The Avs certainly have a good shot at going back to back this season, as I really do not see any team out west that has a guaranteed + matchup vs Colorado. Like Minnesota, they could easily make it out of Round 1 with good play from their good players, and in Round 2, they'll likely have Minny or Dallas. I think that while they could beat both teams in the 7 game series, the x factor is that Colorado has a playoff unproven goalie and a team that is not the dominating force it was last season. Minnesota and Dallas will just need great performance from their goalies and they could easily win. The Avs certainly aren't pretenders, but don't be surprised if Dallas or Minny knocks them out early.
Will the Wild find success these playoffs? It honestly depends. Much like Dallas, they're gonna be stuck with a tough matchup no matter what, and unless they lose to Seattle or play really poorly, they can avoid the pretender title. Though, if I had to wager one team from the 3 in the Central that are great, I would honestly pick Minnesota to make it through to the WCF. They can beat the Avs on every facet of the ice except for forward core, and if one of their two goalies is playing like Gustavsson has here in the regular season, I don't see how anyone can stop them come playoff time.
Colorado Avalanche
Rounding out the Central is Colorado, the defending cup champs and #2 favorites to win it again this year. Colorado has dealt with injuries all season to key players and yet is still 1st in the Central and they control their destiny, if they win out they win the division. They have a pretty meh 51.3 xG%, but their actual G% is top 8 with 54.3. They control the play a lot, with a 52.3 Corsi%, but their games are expected to be close every time, with an xGD of .16. A lot has to do with the fact that their offensive personal is fantastic, with MacKinnon leading the way of course. They have a great mix of forwards that can electrify and forwards that can play boring, but effective two-way hockey. Like Dallas, they have a defenseman in Cale Makar that plays absolutely fantastic hockey on both sides of the ice and Makar is probably the best offensive defenseman in the entire NHL. They've lost a lot on their forward core since last year, but evidently they still have a solid forward core. Their defense has been pretty solid all season too. They rank in the middle in terms of defensive zone giveway % and while they don't block a lot of shots, they don't give up a ton of high danger shots either. All in all, their defense definitely took a step back this season. Cale Makar's injury bug this season hasn't helped, and it might've struck again with Makar seemingly out for a little while now. If they can get everyone back in time for the playoffs, they'll be fine.
The real reason why Colorado has been back where they are despite all the setbacks and regression is that between the pipes, they've improved. If you look at the numbers, it'll say Darcy Kuemper was a fine goalie in Colorado last season, but talk to any Avs fan and they'll tell you about the inconsistencies he had. Alexander Georgiev is not inconsistent. He's been a top 10 goalie this season and has played like it almost the entire year. Him being a rock in goal has steadying the ship and given the Avs a real shot at repeating this season.
The Avs certainly have a good shot at going back to back this season, as I really do not see any team out west that has a guaranteed + matchup vs Colorado. Like Minnesota, they could easily make it out of Round 1 with good play from their good players, and in Round 2, they'll likely have Minny or Dallas. I think that while they could beat both teams in the 7 game series, the x factor is that Colorado has a playoff unproven goalie and a team that is not the dominating force it was last season. Minnesota and Dallas will just need great performance from their goalies and they could easily win. The Avs certainly aren't pretenders, but don't be surprised if Dallas or Minny knocks them out early.
Los Angeles Kings
The LA Kings are riding towards the playoffs coming off an amazing performance since the All Star Break. They're 17-5-3 since the All Star Break and it just seems like no one can stop them. They've got a top 10 xG% with 52.8 and their Corsi% is a solid 51.3% as well. An interesting stat is that the Kings centers are really good at the dot, with the Kings coming in at top 5 in Faceoff Win%. The Kings also do not rely on lucky bounces to score, being in the bottom 10 in % of Goals Scored from Rebounds. Their offense also does all this work despite the fact that they come in bottom 10 in High Danger Scoring Chances. Their offensive personnel works well with their system, as their entire team puts up solid numbers in terms of xGs and xSCs with the exception of a few bottom line guys. There is still reason for concern for this Kings team headed into the playoffs, though. The Kings defense has not been that great this season. 65% of their giveaways are in the defensive zone, which is extremely concerning for a team likely to play Edmonton's explosive offense in Round 1. They cannot give away the puck in the defensive zone so much come playoff time, or they will get killed. They do fall in 6th in terms of blocking shots, which is good. What is amazing considering how many times they give the puck away is that they come in as a top 10 defense in terms of allowing high danger scoring chances. Part of the shoring up the defense and that win streak has to do with the acquisition of Vladislav Gavrikov, who has been a rock since he arrived. His numbers don't look great because he wasn't having the best of seasons before the trade, but since then he's looked fantastic on the blue line. They're going to need him and everyone else on their blue line to step up come playoff time.
LA has a luxury of having two solid goalies. Korpisalo has had a career year this season, despite the fact that he played in Columbus half the season. Phoenix Copley has also been solid, but if you're looking at numbers, Korpisalo and his 16.1 GSAx beat Copley's 5.1. It looks like Phoenix Copley will get the first playoff chance for LA though, but having Korpisalo to go to will be good for them. Their goalies don't allow rebounds, too, coming in 6th least Goals Against scored off Rebounds %. The Kings goalies will have to step up though if the standings hold and they get Edmonton round 1.
If it weren't for their likely first round opponents, the Edmonton Oilers, the Kings would likely be considered the biggest dark horse to win the Cup. The Oilers are 19-5-5 since the All-Star Break, and if the Oilers and Kings matchup, the Kings will be massive underdogs. I'm also heavily concerned with the Kings defense, and with Copley's inexperience and inconsistency in net. I hate to give it to them, but LA is the first team I'm gonna label a pretender, because I just don't see a matchup out West they win, unless they leapfrog both Edmonton and Vegas for the division title.
Edmonton Oilers
The defense leaves a bit to be desired, however. They do have a top 5 defense in terms of allowing high danger chances, but they don't block shots and give away the puck a bit too much to be considered a great defense. Their defense does not share the impeccable Corsi% the forwards have, with only Evan Bouchard and Philip Broberg above that 50% mark. Only one defenseman on the Oilers has a postivie relative Expected Goals, Evan Bouchard, but they manage collectively to not allow many big scoring chances. The Oilers probably have an average defense overall, which is fine to make up for their absolutely fantastic offense. In goal, the Oilers are barely wading waters. Jack Campbell has had a horrific season, but he is just now seeming to find his mojo, in his last 2 or 3 games. Stuart Skinner will still likely get the playoff start, and he has been a pretty solid goalie, but nothing to absolutely write home about. Only a 2.1 GSAx, better than Campbell's -18 by a large margin. All they need though is one of those two goalies to play decently in the playoffs, and they will be fine. I think that's reasonable.
The Oilers are my pick to make it out of the West. McDavid and co. are on an absolute crazy streak and I just don't see a defense in the West that can handle them. Their defense is solid and better than last year, and their goaltending with Stuart Skinner is certainly better than Mike Smith from last season. All of this makes them a contender in my eyes, and if they don't make it out of Round One, it is a complete and utter failure for this Oilers team. Expect a lot from them, I don't think they'll disappoint.
Vegas Golden Knights
Rounding out the Western Conference is Vegas. They can win 3 of their last 4 and lock up the Pacific Division as well as the 1 seed in the West. Edmonton is hot on their tail though so if they want a weaker round 1 matchup they need to step it up. This season, they're expected to have 52.6 G%, but actually have a pretty strong 53.6%. They have an extremely weak 48.75 Corsi%. In most offensive categories, Vegas is sitting pretty middle of the pack. It's pretty concerning that a team like Vegas with such a high bar for success this season and in the upcoming playoffs can have such a middle of the road offense, especially since if they lose the division, they could easy find themselves against a Kings team that probably has the edge in matchup. In terms of personnel, no one on the forward core has played like a superstar, but they have a lot of just solid players. Eichel, Carrier, and Stone each lead the way in their individual G%, and they're a big reason why this forward core doesn't collapse the minute they hit a good defense. Still, they need these players to step up even more come playoff time.
But, somehow Vegas has been really good as of late. This has a lot to do with their defense. They don't allow a lot of high or even medium danger shots, and are the 4th best team in the league in terms of not giving away the puck in their defensive zone. Their 45.38% in that stat is the 2nd best among playoff teams, only behind the Tampa Bay Lightning. They also lead the league in blocked shots. In terms of personnel, only Alex Pietrangelo is above a 3.05 On-Ice xGA p60, and the entire defense has a positive impact on the team's Corsi%. Shea Theodore is currently injured, a big blow to this defense, as he has been their best defenceman by far in the games he has played. Hopefully for Vegas, he will return in time for the playoffs.
In net, Vegas has dealt with a lot of injury. Logan Thompson and Adin Hill are currently out while Jonathan Quick handles the net for Vegas. Since coming to Vegas, Quick has played better than he did in LA, but still, the VGK will be hoping Logan Thompson can return for the playoffs. Logan Thompson has played pretty average but he shows flashes every now and then of something more. If he can find that, especially in the playoffs, all will be well between the pipes. It is also worth noting that Jonathan Quick is incredible in his playoff career, so if he needs to play, maybe he can touch into some of that and lead Vegas.
For Vegas, a first round exit will be a dissapointment. But, unfortunately, their team just isn't impressive to me. I think that they would likely lose a series against Winnipeg or Nashville, but they could beat the Flames. They consider themselves a contender, but they might honestly just be a pretender. If Vegas loses in round one, despite the fact that they will likely have home ice, whether against a WC team or LA, don't be shocked. They need to find some more shooting prowess and goaltending excellence when it matters.
In net, Vegas has dealt with a lot of injury. Logan Thompson and Adin Hill are currently out while Jonathan Quick handles the net for Vegas. Since coming to Vegas, Quick has played better than he did in LA, but still, the VGK will be hoping Logan Thompson can return for the playoffs. Logan Thompson has played pretty average but he shows flashes every now and then of something more. If he can find that, especially in the playoffs, all will be well between the pipes. It is also worth noting that Jonathan Quick is incredible in his playoff career, so if he needs to play, maybe he can touch into some of that and lead Vegas.
For Vegas, a first round exit will be a dissapointment. But, unfortunately, their team just isn't impressive to me. I think that they would likely lose a series against Winnipeg or Nashville, but they could beat the Flames. They consider themselves a contender, but they might honestly just be a pretender. If Vegas loses in round one, despite the fact that they will likely have home ice, whether against a WC team or LA, don't be shocked. They need to find some more shooting prowess and goaltending excellence when it matters.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay was heading into the All-Star break looking really good. However, something has seemed to change with this team. They've gone 13-12-5 since the break and haven't look very great for long stretches. But, they seem to be finding their stride again, being 3-1 in their last 4 games, beating teams like Carolina and NY Islanders. Looking at their numbers, they've seen pretty solid offensive numbers, with a 53 G% and 51 xG%. Their Corsi% is just barely top 10 at 51.5, and they're scoring less goals than they are expected to. They sit in 9th in S%. The concern with their offense is the lack of high danger scoring chances, as they are middle of the pack there. In terms of personnel, the Tampa Bay forward core still looks solid, with Brayden Point leading the way. Kucherov and Stamkos are also difference makers, while Alex Killorn, despite all the points, hasn't produced in the advanced metrics. Their players as a whole have been decently unlucky, especially Kucherov. Kucherov is the best shooter on this Tampa Bay team, and yet he has far less goals than Brayden Point. On defense, the Lightning has seen a lot of high danger shots get let in. The thing that this defense does not do is giveaway the puck. They have the 5th least amount of giveaways with 548, and the third best giveaways in defensive zone with only 44.9% of their giveaways coming in the defensive zone. This makes it so teams have to completely outplay the Bolts to get great shots off. Tampa doesn't block as many shots as they would like, and their entire team gets hit a lot. They only get 47% of hits in any given game, which is concerning for the playoffs as the gritty aspect of hockey lifts up a ton in this time of the year. No one on this defensive core has lit the world on fire, Hedman has been really good like usual, but certainly not the best defenseman in the league that he used to be. All this does not matter because of who they have in goal.
Andrei Vasilevskiy has done this before. At a 25.7 GSAx, Vasy ranks as the 4th best starting goalie in the entire NHL, being below that top 3 echelon by a large margin but still fantastic. When it comes down to the playoffs, Vasy of course is a king. He's looking to lead this team once more. And for Tampa, they are guaranteed to face the Leafs for a 2nd straight season. They won't have home ice advantage, so this will be very similar to last season. To beat the Leafs, they need Vasy to play at his level he has all season and they need to find a way to get down the ice and beat Samsonov. It's hard to call them underdogs in this series considering all the pressure constantly on Toronto, but they're certainly the weaker team. If they lose in round one, it's hard to call them a pretender, but it's their series to take and embarass the Leafs once more.
Andrei Vasilevskiy has done this before. At a 25.7 GSAx, Vasy ranks as the 4th best starting goalie in the entire NHL, being below that top 3 echelon by a large margin but still fantastic. When it comes down to the playoffs, Vasy of course is a king. He's looking to lead this team once more. And for Tampa, they are guaranteed to face the Leafs for a 2nd straight season. They won't have home ice advantage, so this will be very similar to last season. To beat the Leafs, they need Vasy to play at his level he has all season and they need to find a way to get down the ice and beat Samsonov. It's hard to call them underdogs in this series considering all the pressure constantly on Toronto, but they're certainly the weaker team. If they lose in round one, it's hard to call them a pretender, but it's their series to take and embarass the Leafs once more.
Toronto Maple Leafs
This may be the last season we get this era of Leafs hockey. The pressure on the Leafs winning this Round One vs Tampa may be the highest it has ever been. The Toronto Maple Leafs are a top 7 team in both G% and xG%, with a 55 and 54 respectively. Ranking middle of the pack with a 51 Corsi%, the Leafs have gone 15-8-2 since the All-Star Break. They find themselves 7th in S% with 5.81, and they are 2nd in the NHL in % of shots that are blocked by defenders. Only 24% of Toronto's shots are blocked, which is 2nd only to the Blues. John Tavares, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander all have a 60 Corsi%, while Marner trails back with a 56%. Key deadline acquisition Ryan O'Reilly should be back in time for the series against Tampa, which is going to be his chance to make up for the subpar season he has had. This forward core has never been the issue, and it certainly isn't one this season.
The Leafs defense has a solid 52.6% share of takeaways, meaning they takeaway the puck more often than their opponents. What is scary, though, is that 58.3% of their giveaways are in the defensive zone, which is far more than their r1 opponent Tampa. Morgan Rielly and Erik Gustafsson have led the way on D, with a 56 and 57 Corsi% respectively. Timothy Liljegren and Mark Giordano have also been difference makers on the blue line, making the Leafs have a solid top 4 that is something this team has never been able to muster in the playoffs.
In net, Toronto was previously rolling out a rotation of Ilya Samsonov and Matt Murray, but since Murray is now injured, the playoff starter is almost surely going to be Samsonov. He's been great in his 39 games with 15.5 GSAx, while if they need him later on, Murray can come in with his impeccable playoff success in his career.
This again is the make or break year for Toronto. If they beat Tampa in Round One, they are contenders, if not, they are pretenders. For the first time in a while, I legitimately think that this team is going to win Round One. They have a solid matchup, and I think they've got that. Check out my post before the playoff starts that will be the Toronto vs Tampa preview. Should come out in about a week! But yeah, I think Toronto's got this, and if they don't, then expect a lot of change this offseason.
In net, Toronto was previously rolling out a rotation of Ilya Samsonov and Matt Murray, but since Murray is now injured, the playoff starter is almost surely going to be Samsonov. He's been great in his 39 games with 15.5 GSAx, while if they need him later on, Murray can come in with his impeccable playoff success in his career.
This again is the make or break year for Toronto. If they beat Tampa in Round One, they are contenders, if not, they are pretenders. For the first time in a while, I legitimately think that this team is going to win Round One. They have a solid matchup, and I think they've got that. Check out my post before the playoff starts that will be the Toronto vs Tampa preview. Should come out in about a week! But yeah, I think Toronto's got this, and if they don't, then expect a lot of change this offseason.
New York Rangers
The Rangers have been really solid all season, and yet, 3rd is the best they've been able to get in this division. There was a time that they could've competed for the top spot, but I think that 3rd is probably about right for them. They, the Devils, and Canes, are all right next to each other in G%, with NY in the middle at 55.84, which is 3rd in the league (Canes are 2nd, Devils are 4th). In terms of xG%, the Devils and Canes are at the top of the league while the rangers putter with a 51 in 15th. This story is the same with Corsi%, where the Devils are 4th, Canes 1st and the Rangers in 12th with a 51.38. The Rangers have scored 17.6 goals more than they are expected to, which makes them the fourth most overperforming team in the NHL. In terms of individual performances, they've gotten the most out of almost every forward this season, even when a few of them are having down years compared to what their normals are. The one issue of course with this forward core is that Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko have not taken that step forward yet. For both of them being top 2 picks, the Rangers have to be left wanting more from them. They've been okay, but never fantastic, which is not ideal. Maybe things will change for them in the playoffs.
On the defensive side of the ice, the Rangers have a good 53% share of takeaways, which is top 5 in the NHL. Only 48.9% of their giveaways are in the defensive end, which is also fantastic for this Rags defense. They're middle of the road in blocked shots and hits, and they also happen to have one of the best defenseman in the NHL. Adam Fox has a positive takeaway-giveaway ratio, which is great, and a 59% Corsi%, which is the highest on the Rangers defense. He takes the admittedly average defense into a pretty good one, and it helps them out.
On the defensive side of the ice, the Rangers have a good 53% share of takeaways, which is top 5 in the NHL. Only 48.9% of their giveaways are in the defensive end, which is also fantastic for this Rags defense. They're middle of the road in blocked shots and hits, and they also happen to have one of the best defenseman in the NHL. Adam Fox has a positive takeaway-giveaway ratio, which is great, and a 59% Corsi%, which is the highest on the Rangers defense. He takes the admittedly average defense into a pretty good one, and it helps them out.
And then there's Igor. Igor Shesterkin is still an elite goalie, even though he took a small step back from last season. At 24.2 GSAx, Igor is the 5th best goalie from that metric. A weird stat though from Igor is that he loves playing the puck, as he has frozen the puck 172 less times than expected. Igor's main concern right now is that his low danger shot save% is lower than many others he should theoretically be better than. However, all that changes in playoff hockey, and Igor was fantastic last year, so if he does that again the Rangers will be fine.
So, are the Rangers contenders or pretenders? To me, I honestly don't believe in this team. I don't see a way the Rangers beat the Devils that doesn't involve Igor absolutely dominating. This is possible, but I could also see an Oettinger situation happening, but I just don't see a way that they can make it out of round one. If that makes them a pretender, then yes, they're a pretender.
So, are the Rangers contenders or pretenders? To me, I honestly don't believe in this team. I don't see a way the Rangers beat the Devils that doesn't involve Igor absolutely dominating. This is possible, but I could also see an Oettinger situation happening, but I just don't see a way that they can make it out of round one. If that makes them a pretender, then yes, they're a pretender.
New Jersey Devils
Check out my NJ Devils Post! I go in depth on the Devils season and whether or not they can win these playoffs! My long in short was that NJ can definitely contend this season, as they've had a great year on both offense and defense, but they will need to fight very hard in every series. They're in a position though where even if they lose, they shouldn't be considered pretenders. Not this year, at least.
Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina is increasingly closer and closer to clinching the Metro division and taking home ice advantage for the first two rounds. They've probably been the 2nd best team all season. With a 55.38 G%, they rank 2nd only to Boston, and their xG% is 1st in the NHL with 58.58. That stat is insane. When we talk about Boston, we will talk about the insanity of a high G%, but in short: anything above 55 means a team is utterly dominating their stretch of games. And yes, the Hurricanes are utterly dominating games this season. They've kind of cooled off a bit since the All Star Break, but they're still playing fantastic hockey. They have a 59.9 Corsi%, which is another insane stat. That means that the Canes on average have 60% of the shot attempts in any given game, which is insane. The level of domination coming out of this Carolina team is fantastic. Their forward core features 9 forwards with a 60+ Corsi%. Like I said, this team is eminating dominance. The lowest Corsi% of their 13 forwards with 600+ minutes is 54, which is higher than the Corsi% of 29 NHL Teams. So, what makes this team not score on the same level as Boston? Well, their Shooting % is a league worst 4.38%. Despite the fact that the Canes consistently dominate games, they have an issue with finishing. Below is a graph of all Canes players who played 60 games this season, mapped on their Goals p60 minutes (Left) vs their xGoals per 60 minutes (Bottom):
As you can see, aside from Aho and Svechnikov, their offense has not really produced the goals they are expected. Speaking of Svechnikov, this Canes team will not have him of course due to injury for the entire Stanley Cup Playoffs. Ever since he got hurt, the Canes have looked lost. Without him, competing with the Devils and Bruins in the playoffs is going to hurt. They're going to need the rest of this forward core to find their shooting touch, and their defense to play well. Speaking of their defense, they have a great 55% share of takeaways, but a bottom 10 55% of giveaways being in the defensive zone. The Canes defense is also the worst team in terms of blocking shots. The defense has largely ridden the coattails of the dominating offense to make things easy. While they can kind of reliably do that in the playoffs, guys like Brent Burns, Brady Skjei and Jaccob Slavin. Calvin de Haan though has been great, leading the league in On-Ice Goals Against expected per 60 minutes, with 2.09. If he plays like that in the playoffs, that will be fantastic.
In net, they will likely be rolling with Freddy Andersen, who had a pretty meh season, with -5.5 GSAx. I wish they kept Pyotr Kotchetkov up, but if Freddy can do it, the Canes will be fine. Raanta is also an option if Freddy doesn't work in the playoffs, but I have a feeling Freddy Andersen will be perfectly serviceable.
The Canes, especially since they are winning the division most likely, should win Round 1. They'll be playing the Isles, Penguins, or Panthers, and all of those are winnable matchups. They'll just have to watch to not get goalied, especially with this offense that can't score well. They're a contender, but I don't see a cup on their radar this season with the unfortunate injury of Svech.
In net, they will likely be rolling with Freddy Andersen, who had a pretty meh season, with -5.5 GSAx. I wish they kept Pyotr Kotchetkov up, but if Freddy can do it, the Canes will be fine. Raanta is also an option if Freddy doesn't work in the playoffs, but I have a feeling Freddy Andersen will be perfectly serviceable.
The Canes, especially since they are winning the division most likely, should win Round 1. They'll be playing the Isles, Penguins, or Panthers, and all of those are winnable matchups. They'll just have to watch to not get goalied, especially with this offense that can't score well. They're a contender, but I don't see a cup on their radar this season with the unfortunate injury of Svech.
Boston Bruins
Save the best for last, they say. And the Bruins certainly have been the best. I'm sure you know that, I'm sure you probably don't need me to go over every stat. So, let's use this time to gawk at how impressive this Bruins team is. Their G% is 63.37%! To put that in perspective, no team comes even close to 60%. The Bruins score 63% of the goals that are scored in their games. Only one team in the history of MoneyPuck's tracking has ever hit 60%, the 20-21 VGK with 60.9%. The Bruins are going to beat them by 2 whole %. This team is insane, on both offense and defense. Linus Ullmark has the most Goals Saved Above Expected with 41.3, better than Juuse Saros, who, in my opinion, is the best goalie this season. Ullmark and Swayman are the best goalie tandem in the NHL, and the Bruins are the best team. The Bruins are close to breaking the record for best regular season in NHL history, and they clinched the President's Trophy in March!
Yes, the Bruins are contenders. But, we need to watch out. Don't expect them to roll over their first round opponent, especially if it's the New York Islanders. They could get goalie'd pretty easily with all of this pressure. If the 2019 Lightning happens to this Bruins team, then this will be the biggest playoff collapse of all time. In a season full of craziness, the Bruins take the cake. And the Eastern Conference Finals are the least they are expected to go to, and if they don't make it there, I would consider them pretenders.
Yes, the Bruins are contenders. But, we need to watch out. Don't expect them to roll over their first round opponent, especially if it's the New York Islanders. They could get goalie'd pretty easily with all of this pressure. If the 2019 Lightning happens to this Bruins team, then this will be the biggest playoff collapse of all time. In a season full of craziness, the Bruins take the cake. And the Eastern Conference Finals are the least they are expected to go to, and if they don't make it there, I would consider them pretenders.
Conclusion
5 of these teams are going to miss out on Round 2 at the least, and as the matchups get decided, I will make preview posts on each of them. As for right now, the 5 teams I expect to not be in round 2 of these 13 are the Kraken, Lightning, Stars, Kings, and Rangers. The playoffs are always going to be extremely exciting, and I think that with these teams, this year will not be an exception.
Comments
Post a Comment